Tipperary v Limerick:LAST SUNDAY'S first semi-final demonstrated that in sport nothing is certain but equally that such uncertainty has its limits.
Tomorrow isn’t regarded as being as predictable as Kilkenny’s win over Waterford, but Tipperary are, nonetheless, hot favourites to reach a first All-Ireland final in eight years.
All season they have been seen as the most likely challengers to Kilkenny’s status and if the league final in May was ambiguous in its message, Liam Sheedy’s team have progressed to the point that they are considered likely to renew rivalry next month.
But the jury is still out on Tipperary. If the league final showed a core of steel to supplement the young talent, they still went down to a well under-strength Kilkenny team. If the march to another All-Ireland semi-final has been confident, performances have been streaky, failing to kill off floundering opponents.
Sheedy has successfully integrated a number of younger talents and their pace and movement should be suited by Croke Park’s open spaces.
Limerick’s progress has been an amalgam of good fortune and some improvement since the dismal Munster exit against Waterford. Since then, they have cut a swathe through Leinster’s support cast, culminating in the All-Ireland quarter-final win over Dublin.
Their composure that day, making use of their experience in the final minutes to close out the match, shouldn’t obscure the trouble they found themselves in before being rescued by Gavin O’Mahony’s dead-ball skills and Dublin’s anxieties.
And it’s hard to see Limerick coping with the Munster champions when they’re on their game. The naming of Pádraic Maher at full back is the main change for Tipp with Brendan Maher coming in at wing back, but his credentials are strong.
Tipp also have the disadvantage of not having played for five weeks, but similarly lengthy lay-offs didn’t affect Kilkenny, or Cork’s footballers.
Limerick haven’t lost at this stage since 1981, but manager Justin McCarthy has been something of an albatross at this stage, losing at the penultimate stage three times with Waterford (2002, ’04 and ’07), twice with Cork (1975 and ’85) and even with Cashel in the club All-Ireland (1992).
His team have made the best of themselves in the All-Ireland phase and if they are in touch in the final 10 minutes they’ll have a big chance, particularly given their lack of inhibition against Tipperary, but Tipp look likely to have the match well in hand by then.
TIPPERARY: B Cummins; P Stapleton, P Maher, P Curran; D Fanning, C OMahony, B Maher; J Woodlock, S McGrath; P Kerwick, S Callanan, J OBrien; N McGrath, E Kelly, L Corbett.
LIMERICK: B Murray; D Reale, S Lucey, M ORiordan; S Hickey, B Geary, M Foley; D O’Grady, G O’Mahony; J Ryan, O Moran, P Browne; D Breen, P McNamara, A O’Shaughnessy.
Referee: B Gavin (Offaly).
In the last episode: This is the first meeting of the counties at All-Ireland level, apart from the qualifiers, and the most recent championship encounter was the three-match saga in Munster two years ago, eventually won by Limerick.
You bet: Tipperary are more attractive on the handicap at -6 for 11/10 than 1/5 outright. If you fancy Limerick, 21/5 is available, or 10/11 on the +6 handicap.
On your marks: For all their talent Tipperary's half forwards have been a little disinclined to roll up their sleeves and this could be a major shortcoming against Limerick's best line.
Gaining ground: Neither have a hectic record at Croke Park this decade, but whereas Limerick won twice here, including a major shock win against Waterford at the same stage, two years ago, Tipperary haven't won a championship match at headquarters since 2003.
Just the ticket: Stand €45 with refunds available for students and senior citizens in the Cusack and Davin. Hill 16 terrace, €30. Accompanied juveniles, €5 in sections of the Cusack and Davin.
Crystal gazing: Tipperary have been operating at a different level to Limerick for the past couple of seasons and are the more likely winners.
