RUGBY:If Ireland can dictate their terms on contact the England midfield will be badly exposed, writes LIAM TOLAND

JUST BEFORE 5pm on January 22nd, 1879, 4,000 Zulus attacked B Company, 2nd Battalion 24th Regiment of Foot at Rorke’s Drift, Natal, South Africa. Although Lieut Chard, Royal Engineers, the most senior officer and Lieut Gonville Bromhead battled out for command of the Company it was “The Kid” who ruled the roost. Sussex-born Colour Sergeant Frank Edward Bourne, OBE DCM, ruled his men in the face of certain annihilation with an iron fist (sound familiar; Martin Johnson). B Company repelled the Zulus in much the same way the English team can do the Irish tomorrow by understanding the rules of engagement. Crucially, Ireland can use this knowledge to their advantage.

When defending, England are very patient and recognise attacking sequences of the opposition as opportunities. This differs dramatically from Ireland defending. As the waves of Zulus (Irish) come at them, they will go for big hits on the ball carrier. Most often they stop the player dead and rarely go for the double-team hit. That phase is now over and immediately the supporting defenders will make a decision, not on instinct as has been the case for the Ireland players (penalties) but on logic and rehearsal.

It’s like they have a template of options that all and sundry buy into because it is rarely confused. Depending on the tackled Ireland’s player’s ground position the English will commit maximum one defender to the evolving breakdown. Invariably he’ll be well over six foot, stay tall and capable of soaking in multiple Ireland ruckers in a panic to secure the ball. Hence England in defence are best at the “force multiplier” concept as their white line of defenders remain in numerical advantage. However, if the opportunity evolves they will pour many jerseys into the breakdown to do what Ireland have struggled to attempt/achieve where they err on the turnover steal (penalties). That opportunity presents itself when the ball remains on the floor for over five seconds (that quick). In that time England will get numbers in, drive forward and leave the Ireland player on the English side, exposed and very lonely.

The remaining option is the dead ruck. If this occurs England will happily wait for what Ireland do next. Happy in the knowledge that Ireland have habitually elected for fringe attacks, as they did ad nauseam in Cardiff. Ireland don’t want this to be their only tool as in slow play England are too disciplined and it will not be rewarded. Ireland need to shift England at pace just out of their comfort zone, in contact, split kick-offs, etc.

Much has been made of the English back three and Chris Ashton. He is a class finisher (with flaws) but I’m convinced we have the match of him, individually. It would appear he has a licence to roam, looking for opportunities. I disagree as it is his team that afford him that licence and once again here is where Ireland differ and here is where I hope Ireland improve most. In improving this will also dictate the rules of engagement can be balanced in our favour. As stated on Monday, this Ireland team need to pinpoint their tactics early and need to build phases to allow Seán O’Brien and our back three into space. We also need to avoid the fringe in favour of going through the heart of the breakdown, where England can be light.

In attack, England have also evolved to such an extent Ashton thinks he can accomplish anything. Watch him when he fields a box kick. His every instinct is to find his fullback Ben Foden at all costs. It’s a tough pass but Ashton will try it; opportunity Ireland. When in possession they tend to continue one way until hitting the far touch line. If they make it there without penetrating then scrumhalf Ben Youngs comes into play at a very dangerous time in the Ireland defence as it can have reached fifth phase. This will potentially expose our front five to Youngs’ lateral runs from that breakdown. As everything they do is planned phases, watch out for the English blindside winger offering to Youngs right on the gain line; very dangerous.

They will also attempt to use their multiple phases to separate the greatest centre defensive partnership in the game, Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll. They will put much traffic, especially wingers on to D’Arcy’s inside shoulder which will fix him tight to Jonny Sexton with further options to expose the heart of their defence. A very vigilant David Wallace can offer much support between his 12 and 13.

England should win tomorrow but won’t because over the last 12 months Ireland (even without a discernable system) have raised their game for the big boys. Although England are the big boys of the Six Nations they contain weaknesses. Dylan Hartley, for one, is a classic English Premiership player, physical, nice lines but much ado about nothing. He’s not convincing on the ball, tries too hard and can drop it. His lineout will creak under pressure in avoiding Paul O’Connell in the middle.

Their backrow are brutally physical but none possess the feet, agility or power of our three. If Ireland can dictate their terms on contact the England midfield will be badly exposed. Both Matt Banahan and Shontayne Hape lack the experience and in Banahan’s case the wit to control the wide margins. It will be an abject failure of Declan Kidney and crying shame if Banahan is not exposed tomorrow. My hope is both Keith Earls and O’Brien turn him inside out.

Kidney is now in danger of doing a Lanagan’s Ball with his outhalves, which can only be confusing for them, especially the younger Sexton. Sexton rightly starts, primarily because of the man he faces tomorrow. Toby Flood is where Sexton wants to be and given the right team game plan, he will emulate him in the very near future. Flood has a very balanced game, much more so than James Hook and has banished the great Jonny Wilkinson to the bench.

Given a choice I much prefer Ronan O’Gara’s potential cameo than Wilkinson’s. O’Gara can deliver a huge impact on the game, Wilkinson but a drop goal; advantage Ireland.

The name of tomorrow’s great stadium has changed since substitution prop Paul Doran Jones’ last visit to Lansdowne Road. Not so long ago he was wearing the famed jersey of Lansdowne FC. Some turnaround for you Paul, good luck. . . but not too much!

Come on Ireland, fix bayonets . . . “At one hundred yards! Volley fire, present! Aim! Fire!”