FRENCH NOTES:France will punish us if Ireland stand close together, leaving 20 metres free on the ends of their defensive line, writes MATT WILLIAMS

A RARE window of opportunity opened for me to attend today’s match in Paris. This week’s Setanta show is on Sunday and Narbonne have no game so I’m on a day trip to my favourite city.

I was hoping to see Ireland play and fit in a quiet amble down the odd boulevard. Maybe a jaunt through Jardin du Luxembourg before sipping an aperitif outside one of Hemingway’s old haunts in the district St Germain. There should also be time to catch up with a few of the ancient “CNC” set, (Crooked Nose and Cauliflower ear) for a few pints.

So, for many reasons, all hedonistic, I dived through that window. I initially thought, ‘Oh, happy days!’ but on landing I find myself in a freezer.

Let me use colloquial Australian to describe the current weather conditions in France: it is cold enough to freeze a rat and the wind is so strong it would blow a dog off his chain. It’s Baltic, folks – get out your thermals.

Organising to travel to Paris this weekend is like the Japanese military, after losing the second World War, saying the bombing of Pearl Harbour, “seemed like a good idea at the time”.

Declan Kidney and the boys were organising their trip to Paris a few weeks ago also. This match could possibly have led to a Grand Slam. If I feel disappointed about the bad weather, imagine how Declan and his team feel today. Seven days ago Paris was an opportunity for glory, now it is an imperative for survival. Defeat today and the championship is over.

Fortunes in elite rugby can change as quickly as the weather. The news for Ireland gets worse; France are looking good, make that very good.

Their deliciously deep lines of running were evident against Italy. Currently, defending teams leave players on halfway, expecting the team in possession to kick. This creates a wonderful opportunity to run the ball. I have always advocated striking out from your own 22 if the opposition takes players out of the line and puts them in the back-field. Punish them.

I am delighted to see France adopting these principles. This is a higher risk style of rugby so mistakes are unavoidable. Philippe Saint-Andre is empowering his team to simply believe in themselves. When an error occurs this French side is not losing focus or doubting. Their body language is saying, “Do not worry, we will score next time and if not, the time after that”. That is belief. Unlike Marc Lievremont, Saint-Andre has the team thinking positively.

The influence of Patrice Lagisquet can be seen in the set attacking patterns. Much of this organisation revolves around changing the point of attack and moving the ball between the open side and the blind side.

To me, the contrast between how France and Ireland defend in their own 22 will be the key factor in the match.

Let me explain. The rugby field is roughly 65 metres wide. On your try line you have to fill all those metres with defenders and come forward to meet the ball carrier as far away from the line as possible.

Ireland are doing the opposite. They are standing close together, leaving 20 metres free on the ends of their defensive line. Teams have analysed this and are attacking the sidelines. Ireland are trying to scramble across to cover these wide raids. This system has failed and will continue to fail, every time.

Sliding defence, by definition, goes sideways and gives attacking teams space on the outside. This can be highly effective 50 metres up the field, but do this on your try line and the attacking side will eventually score.

Ireland have conceded tries in this manner on several occasions. In November 2010 New Zealand number eight Kieran Reid twice scored out wide. Last year Italy attacked Ireland wide on their line and came up with a try. In the RWC quarter-final and again last week Wales attacked Ireland on the sidelines. Either on the blind side, for Jonathan Davies’s first try, or wide on the open side for George North’s try.

This is a now a technical cancer in the Ireland team that is costing games. It must be removed or the consequences in rugby terms are fatal. France will come at Ireland down the touchline. Worryingly for Ireland, France have more attacking talent than Wales.

There is no bigger three-quarter line in international rugby than Malzieu, Rougerie and Fofana. They all hail from Clermont so there is understanding, proven combinations and ambition. I am not questioning the heart of the Irish backs, but as we saw with North last week and with Rougerie at the Aviva last year, a good big man is very tough to stop.

Yes, I know it an obvious remark, but we miss Brian O’Driscoll. His defensive leadership is proving as costly a loss as those sparks of attacking genius.

The French try line defence is the opposite of the Irish. It moves forward, it is fast, defenders filled the width of the field and it is effective. I was impressed last week.

Looking at recent Irish performances the signs are bad. I cannot see much to warm my heart. I dearly hope I am wrong. The only positive is if we lose and the chill goes into my bones, at least I will still be in Paris.