England no longer expects, England presumes. Unless the nation's footballers suddenly acquire the collapsing habits of the nation's batsmen, Kevin Keegan's team will go into next month's draw for the 2000 European Championship.

There is, of course, the small matter of completing the elimination of Scotland from the qualifying play-offs, but after Saturday's victory at Hampden Park it seems reasonably safe to say that this can be dealt with at Wembley on Wednesday under any other business.

Such confidence is born not out of arrogance or an overestimation of the present strength of the England side, but more out of statistical evidence which reveals that Scotland have not achieved the sort of result at Wembley they will need this time for 50 years. And Craig Brown's attack carries pea-shooters compared to the team of Billy Steel and Lawrie Reilly which won 3-1 there in 1949.

Keegan, then, has all but reached first base as England coach. Barring a catastrophe on Wednesday night, he will emulate Graham Taylor and Glenn Hoddle in qualifying for a major tournament at the first attempt.

The most cheering aspect of Saturday's victory was not merely that England won but that they did so playing in a manner which suggested the players were prepared to back Keegan's judgment in tactics and formations. The win was reminiscent of the away performances under Hoddle in the last World Cup qualifiers.

Keegan used Sol Campbell, who has always played on the left side of the defence for club and country, at right-back and it worked because the Tottenham defender applied himself to the less familiar role with intelligent zeal. David Beckham was required to forsake some of his natural attacking instincts to help out in defence and did so willingly.

Martin Keown, who stood to miss the return leg if he collected another yellow card, concentrated on interceptions rather than tackles and was arguably England's best player, with Paul Scholes, who scored both goals, and Campbell not far behind.

The only relative failure was the attempt to employ Jamie Redknapp in the problematical position on the left side of midfield. Redknapp was frequently drawn towards the middle, and in the first half this gave Craig Burley a free run on the Scottish right, which might have caused England serious concern had better use been made of the advantage.

Keegan has hinted at changes for Wednesday's match but is unlikely to make too many alterations to his winning formula. Andy Cole might start the game instead of Michael Owen, whom he replaced for the last 23 minutes at Hampden, although the fear that Owen's speed struck into the hearts of Scotland's defenders was a further testament to the 19-year-old Liverpool player's England credentials.

Saturday's victory needs to be kept in perspective. Scotland, a modest team grateful for the chance of a play-off, were defeated by an England side embarrassed to find themselves in that situation. Yet the Scots had an abundance of possession and Keegan's team would not have got off so lightly had their opponents been the sort of opposition they might encounter next summer.

The game at Hampden was a British match won by the traditional English strengths of teamwork and commitment. There was still little subtlety in midfield, little that could be reckoned to surprise, say, Romania next time any more than it did in Toulouse.

Paul Ince thrust forward in the old way and Scholes' predatory instincts served England as well as they had done in Keegan's first game, when the Manchester United player completed a hat-trick against Poland. But until half-time the most creative touches were Scottish. Barry Ferguson and Don Hutchison produced some imaginative passes which, but for missed chances, might have set Scotland up for a famous victory.

Yet the Scots' nearest misses followed close on each English goal, adding to Hampden's torment. No sooner had Scholes breasted down Campbell's long ball before scampering past an unfit, leaden-footed Colin Hendry to clip the ball into the net after 21 minutes than Kevin Gallacher had seized on an aberrant back pass from Ince, only to be thwarted by the alertness of David Seaman in leaving his line to meet the danger feet first.

Four minutes before half-time the parabola of Beckham's free kick coincided with Scholes's run and jump. A flick of the ginger head and the contest was all but over, a fact underlined in the next minute when Billy Dodds looped a shot over Seaman's head and saw the ball rebound from the bar.

The rest became tedious as England's defence held off the opposition with one hand pressed against their foreheads while Scotland flapped feeble punches at thin air. Gallacher's early booking for a foul on Owen means he will miss Wembley, but that is now rather academic.

Keegan bubbled away afterwards like a singing kettle and was only mildly critical of his team's football in the second half. "I'd have liked us to have kept the ball better," he said. "I wanted a third goal and we had chances to get it."

"It's only half-time," said Craig Brown bravely, but Scotland are now on borrowed time. Or, as their captain Hendry, put it : "We're going to need a ridiculously impressive performance."

Scotland: Sullivan, Weir, Ritchie, Dailly, Hendry, Ferguson, Dodds, Burley, Gallacher (Burchill 82), Hutchison, Collins. Subs Not Used: Calderwood, Cameron, Davidson, Durrant, McCann, Gould. Booked: Hendry, Gallacher, Dailly, Ferguson, Hutchison.

England: Seaman, Campbell, Adams, Keown, Neville, Beckham, Redknapp, Scholes, Ince, Owen (Cole 67), Shearer. Subs Not Used: Southgate, Froggatt, Wise, Sinclair, Phillips, Martyn. Booked: Scholes, Neville, Redknapp, Adams, Ince. Goals: Scholes 21, 42.

Referee: M Diaz-Vega (Spain).