Away win at Northampton would be like gold dust for Leinster

Northampton Saints v Leinster Kick off: 19:45  Venue: Franklin’s Gardens. On TV: Live on BT Sport.

Thanks to their gutsy late comeback to not only deny Montpellier a bonus point but claim one themselves in round two, Leinster top a fiercely competitive four-way fight for qualification.

Hence, this is not quite must-win, although these back to back games are like two-legged battles within themselves.

At the very least Leinster need to come out on top in the head-to-head over these meetings with Northampton.

"Yea, that's probably realistic," said Leinster head coach Leo Cullen yesterday.

“But you’ve seen some of the turnarounds in these games over the years; it’s incredible. Even this fixture, three years ago when we put 40 points on Northampton over there and then to lose the following week, and just the knock-on effect that had.

“We had a bonus point toward the end and Jamie Elliott got that breakaway try to deny us a bonus point which meant all of a sudden we had to play away in a quarter-final against Toulon, which happened to be my last game of European rugby I’m afraid.”

"So literally every little thing matters, every point does count and we have to make sure we realise that. We’re going out to win the game, clearly, but when you’re in the situation you need to make sure you can get what you can out of it.”

Great character

“In Montpellier we looked like we were dead and buried at 22-6 and Rob was in the bin as well at the time, but the guys showed great character in trying to fight back. So hopefully they’ve got a little self-belief from that. We need to manage better so that we’re not in that scenario where we’re 22-6 down with a man in the bin.

“We’ve talked about a lot of things this week and how we can manage the game a little bit better.”

Allowing for the continuing absence of Johnny Sexton, whom Cullen effectively ruled out of the return match as well, Leinster have certainly picked a strong side. They welcome back ten players involved in the November Tests who were rested for last week's win at home to the Dragons, which makes for a dozen in their starting line-up.

Admittedly, the backline looks a little callow in places, albeit Luke McGrath and Joey Carbery have demonstrated their sound temperament this season. Adam Byrne will make his European debut on the wing, as will young outhalf Ross Byrne or centre Rory O'Loughlin if they are introduced.

For his part, the under pressure Northampton director of rugby Jim Mallinder has made four changes to the side that lost to Leicester Tigers in the Premiership last weekend, with Tom Wood and Courtney Lawes returning from international duty up front.

Ken Pisi comes in for George North, sidelined indefinitely due to his much discussed concussion issues, while Nic Groom is preferred to Tom Kessel at scrumhalf.

The Saints are, unusually, in the lower half of the Premiership table, and come into this game on the back of successive league defeats at home to Newcastle and away to Leicester.

Under lights

Yet, a change in competition, and a big European game under lights at Franklin’s Gardens, will assuredly have them fired up.

Leinster have won four of the five previous meetings between the clubs, although as Cullen recalled, Northampton were victorious at the Aviva Stadium in the sides’ most recent clash in December 2013, a week after their record home defeat in the competition to Leinster, who have won both of their treks to Franklin’s Gardens.

Similarly, Leinster’s storming of the Gardens at this exact juncture of the competition three years ago also came on the back of being bulk Irish suppliers in a strong November.

Rested and refreshed, if the recalled seven forwards who featured in the All Blacks and/or Australian games scale those heights, they should have the platform to take the game to their misfiring hosts, whose form has appreciably fallen off this season.

Against that, there is Leinster’s worrying away form in this competition, which sees them come into this game having managed just one draw in their last seven away games in Europe.

The presence of Jerome Garces is encouraging, given the positive pictures many of these players made to him a fortnight ago against Australia, and he is a very good referee of the breakdown.

The key will assuredly be to keep things nice and tight, and quieten the home crowd as much as possible, especially in the first quarter.

“Teams gain confidence or lose confidence by how they sometimes start,” said Cullen.

“We know they’re going to be emotionally fired up for this game. You just look at the pool and how close it is. There’s very fine margins. We’re just about sitting on top on six points. The team which is sitting on the bottom is on four points so it’s incredibly tight.”

An away win of any hue looks like gold dust in this pool, and Leinster look like they may have enough about them to finally record an overdue one.

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS: B Foden; K Pisi, L Burrell, JJ Hanrahan, J Elliott; S Myler, N Groom; A Waller, M Haywood, P Hill, M Paterson, C Lawes, J Gibson, T Wood (c), L Picamoles. Replacements: D Hartley, E Waller, G Denman, A Ratuniyarawa, T Harrison, T Kessell, G Pisi, A Tuala.

LEINSTER: R Kearney; A Byrne, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, I Nacewa (c); J Carbery, L McGrath; J McGrath, S Cronin, T Furlong, D Toner, H Triggs, S O'Brien, J Van Der Flier, J Heaslip. Replacements: J Tracy, C Healy, M Bent, R Ruddock, J Conan, J Gibson-Park, R Byrne, R O'Loughlin.

Referee: Jerome Garces (France).

Overall head-to-head: Played 5, Northampton 1 win, Leinster 4 wins.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 6/4 Northampton, 20/1 Draw, 8/13 Northampton. Handicap odds (Northampton +3 pts) 10/11 Northampton, 14/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.

 Forecast: Leinster to win.