Six Nations: Ireland v England, Saturday, 4.45pm, Aviva Stadium – Live on Virgin Media 1, ITV1
Can a first-round match be pivotal? The Guinness Six Nations may be a mini league, per se, but in reality it can be a glorified knock-out tournament. Akin to the start of an F1 Grand Prix, by close of business on the first Saturday three teams will have sped off to the first bend, with three more effectively stalled on the grid. There’s no momentum in that.
Nor is the Six Nations conducive to overtaking from the back of the grid. Only three times since 2000 has a team lost on the opening weekend and won the title. Suffice to say, when the full-time whistle sounds at the end of this truly intriguing opener, one of these teams will be out of the Grand Slam and a Triple Crown reckoning, while hopes of winning the Championship will be seriously imperilled.
The stakes seem even higher when you examine where these two sides are coming from and where they’re heading to next. For Ireland, a victory would be the ideal springboard for interim head coach Simon Easterby and his assistants in the absence of the inspirational Andy Farrell.
This would be all the truer if Sam Prendergast again delivers on his talent and temperament, and Ryan Baird vindicates his bold selection by Easterby.
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Ireland would then have an eight-day turnaround before facing Scotland in Murrayfield with hopes of that history-breaking three-peat emboldened and their support base fully aboard. But Irish supporters have been spoilt. The bar is now so high. Alternatively, defeat could diminish interest.
What’s more, Easterby, this coaching ticket, a young captain and this team, could then be facing a buoyant Scottish side in a game for which tickets are apparently like gold dust.
Similarly, were England to win in advance of hosting the French next weekend then talk of winning the title might not seem so fanciful. By contrast another defeat, even another narrow one, would increase the heat on Steve Borthwick and induce some additional trepidation in advance of Antoine Dupont and co visiting next Saturday.
Ireland’s form has wavered from Grand Slam champions to mere champions, and especially last autumn. The lineout became a less reliable life source for the attack, which suffered from handling errors and imprecision.
[ All Blacks end Ireland’s winning streak at home with deserving victoryOpens in new window ]
À la Leinster, the multiphase attack is not as irresistible as before, and only one of Ireland’s 14 tries in the autumn emanated from outside the 22, with 12 of them starting from lineouts, penalties or scrums five metres out.
The problem about having one of the most consistent, possession-based styles of play under Joe Schmidt and Farrell is that teams are better equipped to counter that game, and this has uncanny echoes of the 2019 opener when the chariot derailed the then Irish Grand Slam champions, and it’s been a while since a team so readily absorbed Ireland’s attack quite like the Wallabies did last November.
The return of Garry Ringrose should sharpen the attacking edge, although this will also hinge on work done with Easterby and Andrew Goodman in the Algarve.
With Felix Jones and his Springboks-infused blitz defence no longer on board, it will be fascinating to see if England’s defence hold back like the Wallabies did or push up quickly, so running the risk of Sam Prendergast taking the ball to the line and picking out the right pass in his daring, trademark style.
Ditto England’s approach to their task with the ball. Steve Borthwick has always been a percentage-based coach, who places a premium on kicking, as does the former Saracens and Leicester scrumhalf turned attack coach Richard Wigglesworth.
The selection of Freddie Steward is a nod to the law variations which have ensured a fairer aerial contest. But Marcus Smith is an inventive, quick-witted outhalf who has been given the controls, while the return of Alex Mitchell will add another dimension to their attacking game and the inclusion of the fleet-footed Cadan Murley seems like another signal of intent.
So too the eye-catching selection of three opensides in the backrow, Tom and Ben Curry either side of Ben Earl, whose footwork and acceleration hurt Ireland last year. It certainly looks as if Borthwick and co have hatched a plan to stymie Ireland’s recycling, high-tempo game, if sacrificing some of the physicality which bullied Ireland in the collisions last year, while still having some oomph in their 6-2 split for the endgame.
For their part, in selecting Baird, Easterby and co appear to have placed a premium on winning their own lineout ball and taking on the English throw.
At face value, a teatime Saturday kick-off for an Ireland-England Six Nations game looks ideal. But this is countered by the pricing of the tickets and the even more eye-watering resale value.
The IRFU have encouraged supporters to arrive early, with the Scotland-Italy game on big screens, to only move during breaks in play, and have hired DJ Mark McCabe to improve the prematch entertainment. Hopefully the crowd will raise a cheer.
“I don’t expect this place to be anything other than bouncing on Saturday,” said Easterby. “It is so exciting to have this first up. This fixture will always create that bit more interest and first up at home in a stadium that the players love playing in.
“When we play well and give the crowd that type of experience on the pitch they have bought into it and generated a great atmosphere. So, we have a responsibility as a team to ensure that we get the crowd onside and use that to our advantage.”
Can Ireland afford to lose to England?
Losing Tadhg Furlong and Joe McCarthy removes about 15kg of heft from the tight head side of the scrum but the Irish defence looks stronger (five tries conceded in November as against England’s 15), Baird could prove an inspired pick and most Irish players are much more battle-honed than they were in November, notably Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier.
Doris admitted on Friday that in mastering their detail they may have detracted from their focus on the essence of a rugby contest. It could well be a very tricky, taut, tight game but the memories of losing both last year’s meeting and the autumnal opener against New Zealand should focus Irish minds.
Ireland
Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster); Mack Hansen (Corinthians/Connacht), Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster), Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne/Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster), Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Corinthians/Connacht), James Ryan (UCD/Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster), Ryan Baird (Dublin University/Leinster), Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster), Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster)(capt)
Replacements
Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster), Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster), Thomas Clarkson (Dublin University/Leinster), Iain Henderson (Academy/Ulster), Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster), Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster), Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster).
England
Freddie Steward (Leicester Tigers), Tommy Freeman (Northampton Saints), Ollie Lawrence (Bath Rugby), Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs), Cadan Murley (Harlequins), Marcus Smith (Harlequins), Alex Mitchell (Northampton Saints), Ellis Genge (Bristol Bears), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Sale Sharks), Will Stuart (Bath Rugby), Maro Itoje (Saracens) (capt), George Martin (Leicester Tigers), Tom Curry (Sale Sharks), Ben Curry (Sale Sharks), Ben Earl (Saracens).
Replacements:
Theo Dan (Saracens), Fin Baxter (Harlequins), Joe Heyes (Leicester Tigers), Ollie Chessum (Leicester Tigers), Chandler Cunningham-South (Harlequins), Tom Willis (Saracens), Harry Randall (Bristol Bears), Fin Smith (Northampton Saints).
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (NZ)
ARs: James Doleman (NZ) & Hollie Davidson (Sco)
TMO: Glenn Newman (NZ)
FPRO: Richard Kelly (NZ)
Overall head-to-head: Played 142. Ireland 53 wins, 8 draws, 81 England wins.
Last five meetings: 2024: England 23 Ireland 22; 2023: Ireland 29 England 10; 2023: Ireland 29 England 16; 2022: England 15 Ireland 32; Ireland 32 England 18.
Betting (Paddy Power): 4/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 23/10 England. Handicap odds (England + 6pts) Evens Ireland, 16/1 Draw, Evens England.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
