How about this for some optimistic crystal ball-gazing? Leinster and Munster to reach the knockout stages of the European Cup and Connacht to be the only non-French side in the quarter-finals of the European Shield.

The words `eggs' and `hatched' may spring to mind, for there is a lot of counting to be done yet, but the opening Euro salvos have been reasonably encouraging from an Irish viewpoint.

Leinster may have let themselves down slightly at Donnybrook on Friday night, but Llanelli's win over Begles 24 hours subsequently was a favourable result for Mike Ruddock's team.

On the proviso that Stade Francais win all of their games, victories for Leinster in their two remaining Friday night games at Donnybrook will give them six points and ensure them of second-place in the group. For on that basis, the most that either Llanelli or Begles could accumulate would be four points.

Munster, it is true, have done no more than the minimum that was required of them so far. It could be that another home win against the joint leaders in the group, Perpignan, will be sufficient but if not, then Munster will have to do something they've never done before in the European Cup, namely win a match away from home. Even allowing for the fact that Neath will be a prouder, more fired up team at the Gnoll, Munster ought to be capable of that.

As one suspected in the immediate aftermath of Duncan Hodge's equalising drop goal for Edinburgh Reivers at Ravenhill, Ulster, by comparison, are a little on the back foot and it is probable that they will have to win their final match in Edinburgh.

Connacht, admittedly, have barely dipped their toes in the European Shield. Nevertheless, they and Narbonne are the only unbeaten sides in Pool A, and Narbonne aside, at least the French contingent in this pool looks nothing likes as strong in Pools B and C. As the two best third-placed teams from the three pools also progress, Connacht must have a fighting chance again.

A table based on national boundaries shows the Irish provinces to be doing pretty well (four wins and a draw in seven games), someway behind the French (seven wins out of 10 in the Cup, 20 wins out of 28 in the two competitions) but still better than all the rest. The Welsh have suffered 12 defeats in 16 matches.

Credit again then to the IRFU. By professionalising the provinces, improving the interpros and bringing players home, the Union have provided the best structures of the four home unions and have upped the performance level. And at least the leading teams and the national side are now pulling in the same direction, which is more than can be said of the Welsh and English.

The provinces ought theoretically to be better again in 12 months' time. For example, only five of last Friday's Leinster side had full-time contracts last season and seven of the 19 used against Stade Francais are still not on professional contracts.

But the Union cannot afford to pat themselves on the back and stand still. Everyone else is striving to move forward all the time as well. Given the national team is the flagship of the game, and whose success is the best PR the IRFU can buy, it stands to reason that the structures should be to the benefit of the top down, not the other way around.

On that basis, the IRFU have to ensure participation in a putative British and Irish league. How such a league, and Ireland's participation in it, can be accommodated in an already over-crowded calendar is another matter. But it has to be.

The problem is even more acute next season. With the inclusion of next season's World Cup, Ireland and the other home unions are liable to be playing around 20 internationals each over the next two seasons. Were the English clubs to want a direct replacement for their own league, they might be looking for something in the region of 26 matches. Add in the European Cup, and the interpros, and clearly something will have to give.

At most, the top players shouldn't be required to play more than 30 to 35 matches a season, including internationals. Arguably it should be around the 25-mark. And wither the clubs in all of this?

The IRFU's dilemma is accentuated by the balancing act they are managing between the provinces and the clubs, which is almost impossible now. Last Wednesday night, representatives of the 12 first-division clubs met with Noel Murphy and other IRFU officials to again outline their concerns.

However, while it's bad enough that the 12 don't speak with the same voice, worse still most of the 12 voices change from year to year through the clubs' presidential revolving door.

Their concerns are understandable, for they see themselves being left out in the cold much as clubs in the southern hemisphere are. But, sadly, this is probably the way it has to go. Which means the Union have some hard decisions to make in the very near future and as most of them take the first step up the Union ladder via their own clubs, one wonders will they have the gumption to make those hard decisions.

They might also be doing more to bring other players home and give the provinces more financial autonomy so that they can facilitate this process.

Take the case of Eric Miller, on whose head a reasonable transfer fee will be placed tomorrow. True, it's not the Union's fault that Miller signed a four-year deal at Leicester, and their `no transfer fee' policy is understandable and even commendable to a degree.

But they cannot blithely expect an Irish club to fund the fee in the current climate, and given Miller himself wants to come home (in part because of the improved structures), Warren Gatland presumably wants him home and it is the Union's stated policy to bring players home, there are ways and means around this.

Commercial interests could take a hand, via the provinces or whoever (think of the goodwill generated by that), much as a private company partly funded the New Zealand Union's retention of Zinzan Brooke in latter years. As could one of the six Irish clubs reputedly interested in the player, or the three provinces, or the Union themselves. Leicester could be given first option on a putative return to England, to further reduce the fee. Where there's a will, there's a way.

Should it come to pass that Miller returns, then pats on the back for the IRFU again. But if he does not return home, after a month in Leicester limboland while the Union are contracting a mild case of vertigo atop the high moral ground, then it will be a failure of the system. And as the IRFU have hands-on control of the provincial as well as the national contracts system, then it will be their failure.