At the end of yesterday morning's England training session in the Legia Stadium, where tonight they hope to beat Poland to reach the qualifying play-offs for Euro 2000, Kevin Keegan's players celebrated an FA security man's birthday by peppering the poor fellow with shots from all angles. If England hit the target as regularly and with similar accuracy this evening the victory they crave should be assured.
A defeat for Keegan's team means elimination, with players and coach again becoming the Aunt Sallies of critical opinion and public disaffection. A draw and England's chances of competing in next summer's tournament in the Low Countries will be put on hold until the Poles, who have a match in hand, have played in Sweden on October 9th.
In this situation a further draw would take Poland into the playoffs and leave England to twiddle their thumbs for the best part of a year before embarking on the qualifiers for the 2002 World Cup. With the Swedes poised to win the group in Luxembourg tonight, the idea of Poland taking a point off them is not far-fetched.
So if ever there was a time for England to get their act together for the most crucial fixture since last year's World Cup, it is now. Keegan and his players know this. Yesterday Keegan called for the character "that will always be the biggest strength of an English football team". For good measure he also demanded passion of a sort which had begun to go missing under Glenn Hoddle.
Sterling qualities these may be but without the high standards of passing and movement, plus tactical discipline and awareness, which distinguished the performances of Hoddle's team when they won difficult World Cup qualifiers in Georgia and Poland before holding Italy in Rome, England will surely struggle here tonight.
Poland are likely to prove a stronger proposition than they did at Wembley in March when Keegan began his career as England coach with a 3-1 victory. In Miroslaw Trzeciak and Andrzej Juskowiak they have potential match-winners with Trzeciak identified as the principal threat on the Polish left. In addition Tomasz Iwan and Krzysztof Nowak will exploit any weaknesses in Keegan's midfield.
Logically, therefore, Keegan's team selection should be aiming to win the match from the sort of solid defensive base which distinguished his time at Fulham rather more than his five years at Newcastle. Saturday's 6-0 victory over Luxembourg undoubtedly roused the team's spirit and a hat-trick revived the stock of Alan Shearer but told Keegan next to nothing about the present strength of a defence lacking Sol Campbell and, in goal, David Seaman.
Tonight's opponents can be expected to cross the halfway line rather more often and with considerably more confidence than Luxembourg, who at Wembley entered English territory with the nervousness of trespassers expecting the gamekeeper and his 12-bore to appear at any moment. While the Poles may not be especially quick they will waste little time exploiting any untoward gaps which appear behind England's midfield and defence, particularly on the wings.
This is why Keegan's apparent eagerness to employ Kieron Dyer at right back is a mite worrying. True, Dyer distinguished his first full cap on Saturday with an outstanding exhibition of wing back play before a calf strain forced him out of the game at half-time. But with Luxembourg in a constant state of retreat he was not called on to demonstrate his defensive abilities at this level.
Gary Neville, therefore, might be a safer choice in the right back position and undoubtedly will play if Dyer's injury has not cleared up. Yesterday there was a whisper that Phil Neville would be at left back rather than Stuart Pearce, although everything Keegan has said suggests that the old bruiser will keep his place.
The balance of the midfield will, as ever, be fundamental to England's cause. Now that Paul Scholes is out of suspension he can play alongside David Batty in the centre with David Beckham and Steve McManaman on the wings.
If, as has been suggested in some quarters, Ray Parlour reappears on the left flank, with McManaman on the bench, Keegan will be showing an uncharacteristic caution in a situation better suited to his normally positive approach. On Saturday Parlour, naturally right-sided, looked like a man who had put his shoes on the wrong feet.
Shearer, the man most likely to win the match for England, will surely have Robbie Fowler as his partner up front with Michael Owen ready to add extra pace to the attack should the need arise. Poland do not have strikers of this quality and it is up to Keegan's team as a whole to make sure that such an advantage does not go to waste.
Twice in these qualifiers, in Sweden and Bulgaria, Shearer has given England an early lead which has been squandered through slipshod passing and a generally feeble response to adversity. A similar relapse now would be hard to forgive. But England should win.
Poland (probable, 1-3-4-2): Matysek; Zielinski; Hajto, Klos, Waldoch; Michalski, Iwan, Nowak, Siadaczka; Juskowiak, Trzeciak.
England (possible, 4-4-2): Martyn (Leeds); Dyer (Newcastle) or G Neville (Man Utd), Keown, Adams (both Arsenal), Pearce (West Ham) or P Neville (Man Utd); Beckham (Man Utd), Batty (Leeds), Scholes (Man Utd), McManaman (Real Madrid) or Parlour (Arsenal); Shearer (Newcastle), Fowler (Liverpool).
