There may be more shocks in the west after Roscommon's defeat of Galway in last week's Bank of Ireland Connacht semi-final. That's the opinion of one of the province's most respected commentators. Martin Carney, player, coach, currently an RTE analyst and formerly of the GAA's Football Development Committee, believes that his home county Mayo won't have the field to themselves now that the favourites are gone.

"When Mayo were playing very well in the National League last April, a lot of the new forwards were also going well with the under-21s. I'm not convinced that they can pass championship tests just yet.

"Mayo are everybody's favourites for this weekend. They've got a good defence but David Brady is a big loss. His strength at centrefield drives them on. He was the difference between the teams against Galway in the League final.

"If Mayo come through, I have a feeling that Roscommon will be able for them in the Connacht final but if Galway regroup and get out of their system whatever disharmony there is, I still think they have the best chance of getting through the qualifiers and making an impact in the later stages of the championship."

Mayo's NFL win and the influx of new talent, like James Gill and Marty McNicholas, to the forwards has however established the county as far more assured prospects for this championship only a year after tomorrow's opponents Sligo defeated them in the Connacht first round. Sligo had their own morale-building run in the league and reached the semi-finals for the first time in 27 years.

Seen as a tribute to the county's Mayo manager, Peter Ford, Sligo's progress helped distance memories of the awful beating Galway gave them immediately after the euphoria of defeating Mayo.

Yet few enough would fancy them in Castlebar, where they haven't defeated the home county since winning only their second provincial title in 1975.

Carney points to the trend of recent matches between the counties and dissents from the popular view. "How close are Sligo? Closer than many think for this game. I'm not sure if they can extend their vision beyond this game but they have been able to get Mayo playing on their terms in championship matches. "In Peter Ford and TJ Kilgallon (Sligo selector and former Mayo team-mate of Ford), they have management who are very aware of the strengths and weaknesses of Mayo."

Last year's win was inspired by an outstanding display from Sligo's Eamonn O'Hara but frequently the criticism of the county is that its big guns don't always fire in big matches. Over the last six years, Sligo have been extremely competitive against all three of the province's more successful counties, drawing with Galway on three occasions and recording wins over Roscommon and Mayo. But the killer result hasn't happened for them.

"I think a fair way of putting it," says Carney, "is that they have made progress without making a breakthrough. These teams have been the product of good under-21 sides in the mid-90s but will be reaching the end of their lifespan soon because inter-county careers aren't lasting far into players' 30s. And they still have to make a breakthrough."

After the county's demolition by Galway, former Derry coach and manager Mickey Moran decided a year ago that he had taken Sligo as far as he could. In stepped Ford, former Mayo captain and selector with John Maughan, to try and rebuild confidence.

"Peter's very able," says Carney. "He was the real tactician behind Mayo's All-Ireland runs in 1996 and '97. He would feel he didn't get credit for his involvement and walked away. Then he was overlooked when Pat Holmes got the Mayo job. That sense of injustice can be a good thing for a manager to have.

"He has a good lieutenant in TJ Kilgallon and has also brought in Jarlath Cunningham, the Crossmolina trainer, to freshen things up a bit."

Despite some surprise in the county at his appointment, Holmes has impressed observers with his forthrightness and independent thinking. The sideline clash between him and his former team-mate is an event in itself.

"Pat's a very bright guy," says Carney. "There would have been surprise that he got the job after John Maughan, particularly as Peter had done so well with his club Ballinrobe, but people have been won around."

It's not the first time Mayo have come up against one of their own with a managerial point to prove. John O'Mahony has done battle with three different Mayo managers in big matches since his acrimonious departure from the helm of his own county a decade ago.

So far Holmes is the only one he hasn't bested.