Twelve months since the counties met in the match of last season, it is nearly impossible to see how Offaly can turn the tables on champions Cork in tomorrow's Guinness All-Ireland hurling semi-final at Croke Park (3.30).
Taking that contest as a starting point, Cork have since won the All-Ireland and largely impressed this season whereas Offaly have lost key personnel and failed to exhibit any signs of improvement. Offaly are adept at confounding general assumptions but even that's an ambivalent observation as there is a common enough view abroad that the county is about to give its best performance of the year.
This is based on the theory that since 1998, Offaly have grown indifferent to the challenge of the Leinster championship, even against Kilkenny, as if the reversal of fortunes between provincial and All-Ireland finals two years ago settled an argument rather than developed it.
Yet it fails to take into account that for the past two years, Offaly have been outclassed by Kilkenny and whereas 12 months ago they dredged from somewhere a wonderful but ultimately unavailing performance, expectations that this will happen again are virtually certain to be disappointed.
A case might be made on two counts: that the team has been remodelled and that the county has never died easily in the championship; that Cork's progress to this stage hasn't been flawless and the defensive lassitude in the Munster final can be further exploited.
Those drafted into the Offaly team aren't exactly inexperienced and the newest face, Brendan Murphy, has been the most impressive so far. But those who have departed are severe losses. One little referred to aspect of Offaly's metamorphosis in 1998 was the return from injury of Hubert Rigney. His presence at centre back was a key element of the team.
He is replaced by Joe Errity who for all his admirable and versatile qualities, has never played centre back at this level and whose inter-county highpoints in the recent past have been up front rather than in defence.
Martin Hanamy's retirement was predictable and it could be argued that Sean McGrath helped precipitate his departure but his groomed successor Colm Cassidy has missed the championship after a car crash. Niall Claffey has the credentials but more on the wing than in the corner. John Troy's pique-driven retirement follows a frustrating year during which he has battled injury without great success. An out-of-sorts Troy wouldn't be a whole lot of use but he has a facility to tune into a match if there's a real contest - as he did two years ago and during the corresponding match 12 months ago when he managed to embarrass the otherwise majestic Brian Corcoran.
So far Johnny Dooley has been the best centrefielder in the country and he is joined by Ger Oakley, yet fully to establish himself at this level - but Johnny Pilkington is on the wing, a move away from his more familiar habitat.
Cork on the other hand have tweaked their team and improved it. The erratic centrefield has been replaced, with Derek Barrett's display in the Munster final coming as the answer to Jimmy Barry-Murphy's most fervent prayers and Pat Ryan giving another good 30 minutes - the challenge now is for him to deliver the full 70.
The imponderable question is whether the leaky defence in Thurles was a warning of things to come or merely a wake-up call after a complacent aberration. The more pressurised right side will have to cope with Offaly's more attack-oriented flank but it's hard to see John Ryan and the improving Gary Hanniffy turning the screws on Dairmuid O'Sullivan and Corcoran.
Cork's forwards are scoring at the same rate as a year ago and whereas it's unwise to rule out a resurgence of Offaly pride, revenge for a year ago looks out of the question.
