MUNSTER and Wasps, who meet at Thomond Park this afternoon in the Heineken European Cup, have both lost to Cardiff. The consequences of those defeats are such that defeat today will effectively be the point of no return in the context of qualifying for the knock-out stages of the competition.
Despite the losses to Cardiff the winner of this encounter will, however, still be in with a chance of qualification. It is possible but unlikely that four points will suffice to earn a quarter-final berth. Five points appears to be the minimum necessary for progress in this extremely difficult group that includes defending champions, Toulouse, as well as last season's beaten finalists, Cardiff, and Milan.
Points difference will be the deciding factor in the event of teams finishing level on match points and Munster's points difference is not in a health state after last Wednesday night's in Cardiff.
Munster go into the match today with two points from two matches. Wasps have played just the one match, the loss to Cardiff. The Welsh side have four points from their two encounters. Toulouse have played just one match; and defeated Milan, who are pointless after two outings.
While Munster and Wasps are engaged today, Toulouse will be at home to Cardiff. The result of that match will be watched with special interest. A win for Cardiff would in fact be more beneficial to the side that emerges on the credit side at Thomond Park as Cardiff's last match is at home to Milan and they would be favoured to win that with something to spare, while both Munster and Wasps must still meet Toulouse.
Connacht will also be engaged on the European front this afternoon when they face the daunting task of meeting Northampton at the Sports ground in the European Conference.
Injuries, the necessity to bring in some fresh legs, in the pack, and the availability of Ireland flanker David Corkery were the factors that promoted the Munster selectors to make four changes in personnel and one posit tonal alteration from the side that had to endure a torrid second half in Cardiff.
The Munster side was not finalised until late yesterday morning with medical reports playing a part in its formulation.
The good news for Munster was the availability of Corkery and Anthony Foley's recovery from the chest injury sustained in Cardiff. However, Eddie Halvey was again ruled out because of an ankle, injury. Out, too, is left wing Brian Begley, who injured a shoulder in Cardiff. Begley's absence means that Dominic Crolly has been moved from full beck to the left wing and there is a recall for Pat Murray at full back.
There are three changes in the pack. As expected John Fitzgerald and Noel Healy come in at prop for Ian Murray and Paul McCarthy, while Corkery will play on the openside flank in place of Liam Toland. Wasps make just one change from the side that lost to Cardiff: Shane Rosier comes in for Lawrence Serase on the left wing.
This match will be Munster's third in the space of a week and that imposes severe demands on their stamina and resilience. Munster will need all their traditional spirit this afternoon against a side that includes five internationals. Munster did extremely well against, Cardiff on Wednesday in the first half, but then had major problems in the scrum. It proved a fatal weakness against a fine Cardiff back row and a most accomplished scrum-half in Robert Howley.
I do not expect to see Munster suffer similar problems this afternoon, while Wasps are not as strong in the line out. Cardiff exploited that weakness last week. The return of Corkery is a big boost for Munster and the props, Fitzgerald, and Healy, did not play in Midweek. One hopes that Terry Kingston, Mick Galway, Gabriel Fulcher, Foley and Ben Cronin will have recovered from their midweek labours. If so, they should be able to win some very worthwhile lineout possession. The Munster back row can then, put some pressure on the opposition, with Foley and Corkery being especially strong going forward.
Munster must contain Wasps up front and must also keep a watchful eye on Wasps scrum-half Andy Gomersall, who if not in the Howley mould going forward, is a fine young player. Wasps have plenty of attacking ability behind the scrum and Va'aiga Tuigamala poses a threat in the centre with his bulk and pace.
Munster out-half Killian Keane has been in fine form and played very well in Cardiff. His half-back partner, Stephen McIvor mixed the indifferent with the good. Murray's return at full back brings great stability and experience to the Munster team. In Begley's absence, Munster will probably rely on Keane to do the place-kicking.
"We must put Cardiff behind us. This is a match we must win and the players know just how high the stakes are. I am sure we are capable yet again of rising to the occasion, especially in Thomond Park," said Munster manager Colm Tucker. "We need a big performance."
Munster certainly need that and there could not be a more opportune time to give it. Munster won the two matches they have played on home soil in the European Cup against Swansea last season and Milan last Saturday. A hat-trick beckons. It is essential it they are to maintain interest in quarter-final qualification.
Connacht, who gave a very disappointing, performance against Dunvant in midweek, will be facing a Northampton side that are overwhelming favourites to win the group in the Conference. Northampton have won their two matches to date, away to Toulon and at home to Orrell. They bring a side to Galway that includes six internationals and three A internationals.
England out-half Paul Grayson is at full back with Scotland's Gregor Townsend and England's Matt Dawson at half-back. Ireland hooker Allan Clarke is propped by England A international Martin Hynes and Matthew Volland, who has just been called into the England squad. The team is captained by England back row Tim Rodber. Blindside, flanker Shem Tatupu is a Western Samoan international signed from Halifax Rugby League Club.
Connacht make four changes in personnel following the Dunvant defeat - three in the pack and a positional alteration. That Connacht pack will face a very stern examination in trying to contain Rodber and his colleagues. Certainly it looks as if Connacht's defensive qualities will be put to the test.
Half-backs Conor McGuinness and Eric Elwood may have to work on a meagre ration and Elwood and full back Brian Carey will probably be required to do plenty of defensive kicking and the outside backs an amount of effective tackling.
Rodber exercises a great deal of influence in the Northampton pack. The newly aligned Connacht back row of Mark Reilly, Barry Gavin and Rory Rogers will have to work very assiduously. Without Martin Bayfield, the Northampton lineout has not been a strong point and maybe Connacht can win some useful ball in this facet of play must certainly use what they get effectively and not turn over possession, as apparently they did to, fatal effect against Dunvant.
One expects a spirited and full-hearted performance from Connacht, but anything other than a win for Northampton would be a major surprise.
The under-20 interprovincial series starts at Ravenhill, this afternoon when holders Leinster open the defence, of their title against Ulster, while the Munster under-20 team takes on the Exiles at Sunbury tomorrow.
. Harlequins and Leicester who both survived contrasting Irish experiences in midweek, closer to the quarter-finals by making home advantage count against Neath and Scottish Borders respectively.