RUGBY:The pool match with Australia will be crucial to Ireland's success or otherwise. GERRY THORNLEY reports
THE SLAM that got away, perhaps, but in terms of the World Cup perhaps that’s not entirely a bad thing. Only time will tell, but at any rate, Irish players, management and supporters can reflect on the climax to the Six Nations and the memories will only be positive.
The feel-good factor which ought to linger from last week can only be beneficial, especially as it’s instructive to recall the “feel-bad” effect of the defeat to Scotland in Croke Park with which Ireland finished the 2010 Six Nations. Arguably, it took virtually a year for Ireland to banish that memory.
“It’s probably the same weekend a year on,” points out Ollie Campbell, “and we’re finally back on track. It is a world of a difference, from the feeling and the disappointment a year ago after the defeat to Scotland at Croke Park, and the difference a year on in a World Cup year.”
Former Irish captain Ciarán Fitzgerald echoes Ralph Keyes’ view that last Saturday’s performances vindicates the feeling within the squad that they weren’t that far away from clicking. Redemption and vindication, along with a few lessons.
For Fitzgerald, it may also have given the players and management a valuable reminder in the art of game management.
“That’s what you need at the highest level, because you don’t always get times to strike, you don’t always get times to finish, but you’ve got to manage your game and that showed great maturity.
“And I was delighted for Jonathan Sexton particularly, because going into it I had a concern that, because of all that had happened, maybe the guy would be a little bit nervous or lacking confidence. But he really showed great strength mentally.
“I know Ronan (O’Gara) is renowned for his mental strength, but that was a real test for Sexton in terms of his mental strength, and I thought he was absolutely outstanding.
“The players themselves seem to lead the way the last day,” adds Fitzgerald, “and the senior players particularly. And I think he (Declan Kidney) should manage that a bit and I think he will. I think he’s clever enough to know that, and that’s his style of operating: let the senior guys work it and be the jockey on the horse, if you like.”
Another possible lesson, according to Keyes, was the last-day reminder that first-up rugby is a fight. “They were clinical and accurate in their execution, and I thought that sometimes you can get snowed under with technicalities and skill levels and offloading, and sometime you can forget about the little bit of Irish madness, and I think there may well have been an element of that in the dressing-room beforehand.
“Sometimes you just have to leave the technicalities and the skill stuff that you’re trying to force to the back of your mind. It’s there, like, and get yourself mentally prepared for a battle. Once we won the battle things were clicking because we were winning the battle.
“I’m not saying boot, bite and bullock, (but) it’s an ingredient that we have in our make-up and we maybe under-employed it a bit in recent times. Sometimes that, added to the skill levels, will make a big difference for us.”
The finale to the Six Nations also underlined the value of experience, with Ireland’s 600-plus tally of caps double those of a comparatively callow England team. And one only has to recall how a grizzled bunch of veterans somehow dragged a misfiring English team to the final four years ago, never mind winning it four years before.
“In the white heat of a World Cup you can go to that well and dip in when things get tough,” said Keyes. “England had practically an under-23 frontrow. We forget that. We were looking at England and thinking ‘it’s England’, but there were a lot of young fellas in their side who had never experienced that kind of battle. And I don’t think Martin Johnson will be entirely unhappy that his players got a knock back, because it will stand to them.”
Of course, as the performance of the Crusaders at Wembley today may well remind us, not that we needed it, the force very much remains in the south. Although Graham Henry, Pieter de Villiers and Robbie Deans will no doubt disagree, Keyes makes a valid point when he cites how much better the preparation should be for the trio of Southern Hemisphere heavyweights. The expanded Super 15 continues until mid-June, with the final on July 9th.
The Wallabies, All Blacks and Springboks will then go into camp, with, for example, Australia hosting the Samoans on July 17th before playing four ultra-competitive Tri-Nations games, concluding with a visit from the All Blacks on August 27th.
They will not be coming back from holidays and a pre-season and, of course, they have the shorter hop across the Tasman to New Zealand. By contrast, Ireland and the rest of the European teams will be a little under-cooked.
“I think the Southern Hemisphere teams generally are half a step above us at the moment,” says Keyes, “and Australia have the benefit of playing right up to two weeks before the World Cup starts. They’re going to have battle-hardened teams, ready for the fray. But I think the experience in this Irish squad now will really stand to us in that match.”
Much will hinge on how the Irish provinces progress in Europe and the Magners League, but with all three prominently placed on both fronts and the prospect of home semis in the offing, it’s conceivable that any one, two or three will be involved up until the penultimate weekend in May (for the Heineken Cup and European Challenge Cup final weekend in Cardiff) and the league final a week later.
Factoring in four weeks’ holidays, followed by a five- or six-week pre-season, not all the frontliners will necessarily be available for the off in the “friendly” against Scotland on the first Saturday in August.
By contrast, say, the Italians’ season will be over on May 8th, giving Nick Mallett a three-month window to factor in holidays, a pre-season and warm-up games.
The Azzurri have two days less of a turnaround after playing Russia before the final pool game, but it would be no surprise if they target the Irish game from the outset.
“When they get us in the World Cup it will be about their pack,” forecasts Keyes. “Their pack will go ga-ga, and they’ll be well capable of competing with us in the forwards. If we don’t have an intensity like we had last weekend, then you are vulnerable against sides like Italy. But I would expect Ireland will certainly have the intensity to beat them. But they’re dangerous.”
“We have come a long, long way in the last seven weeks,” says Campbell. “If we were to pay Italy again now I think we would have a much more substantial performance and I think the difference in the scoreline would be a lot more than two points.”
In any case, on balance, the better the Irish provinces perform and extend their season into the end of May, the better for Ireland’s World Cup aspirations.
Also, the more games, the more it will both clarify and complicate the management’s thinking regarding the final 30-man World Cup squad.
The 32-man squad for the Six Nations contained 18 forwards, including seven backrowers and five locks, as there were only three props named – which is a commentary in itself. That squad had 13 backs, but this was without the injured Rob Kearney and Geordan Murphy as well as Tomás O’Leary, who was added a week later, while Fergus McFadden would also come into the equation after Shane Horgan and (initially) Tommy Bowe were ruled out.
Regardless of whether Kidney and co opt for a 17-13 or 16-14 split of forwards and backs, the likelihood is that a third hooker and at least one more prop (possibly two) can be added to that, which leaves little room for manoeuvre. Far from a bolter or two emerging between now and August 22nd, a few big names, conceivably including one or two established internationals, are probably going to miss the cut.
One caveat: a strong provincial flourish until the end of May will ensure a tight squeeze in terms of preparation. As the first three warm-up matches come before the 30-man squad is finalised, this allows an opportunity to check on the form and well-being of some players (Kearney and Murphy spring to mind). Coupled with Ireland’s schedule, this will also present Kidney with a difficult juggling act.
“The Ireland-Australia match is the second pool game, whereas normally it’s the third or fourth,” says Keyes.
“That means he’ll have to play his best side the week before against the US to build them into the Australian game,” says Keyes. “So that’s going to be a chess game for himself, trying to juggle and decide where to leave them out in the warm-up matches.”
Indeed, bearing in mind the initial struggles against Namibia and Georgia four years ago, and the importance of bonus points (if not in determining final pool placings, then at least in terms of gaining an advantage over main rivals as the groups unfold), Ireland will also want to put their best forward against Eddie O’Sullivan’s Eagles on September 11th which, as the 10th anniversary of 9/11, will be an especially emotive occasion for the American team.
Indeed, Kidney might ideally like to finish off the warm-up matches at home to England with a near full-strength side (sending them off with a win and a full house!). But if that’s the case, some of the others could go without a match for five weeks before more than likely coming into the equation against Russia in Rotarua. As this comes a week before the final pool match against Italy, Kidney will surely wish to make fuller use of the squad than was the case four years ago, when 11 players started all four pool matches, and another 11 didn’t start one.
“There’s no easy answer,” Keyes says, “but it’s going to be interesting to see how that comes out in the wash. It’s going to be difficult to keep everyone simmering nicely. Some will not have the same game time than others.”
But for Fitzgerald, the equation is straightforward enough. “Obviously the crucial match is the Australian match, and I think they’re well up for Australia. He’s probably going to have to play the same team in the first two matches, against the USA and Australia, and no harm, because he can afford to do that.
“Australia are probably the most successful country in World Cup history, with two wins, second once and third once, so they their best at peaking for a World Cup, and for Ireland to progress to a semi-final they really need to beat them in the second match and I think they’re well capable of doing it.
“I think their forwards are strong enough to take on the Australian forwards and I think their backs are clever enough to take on the Australian backs. There’s great talent in that Australian team and I give them full credit for peaking at World Cup time, but I do think they are capable of doing it. And I think last weekend was crucial for that.”
WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN
Friday, June 17th: Registration deadline for declaring preliminary 50-man World Cup squad.
Warm-up match: Saturday, August 6th, Scotland v Ireland, Murrayfield, Edinburgh, tbc.
Warm-up match: Saturday, August 13th, France v Ireland, Stade Chaban Delmas, Bordeaux, 7.30pm.
Warm-up match: Saturday, August 20th, Ireland v France, Aviva Stadium, 5pm.
Monday, August 22nd: Deadline for declaring 30-man squad.
Warm-up match: Saturday, August 27th, Ireland v England, Aviva Stadium, 2.30pm.
Ciarán Fitzgerald
Six Nations upside?"The last performance and the realisation they can emulate what's happening in the Southern Hemisphere, that they have the skill level to do that. That is the big positive because they can strike from far out, they can retain possession, they can create openings and now they can finish them. Going into the World Cup they shouldn't have a fear really. I know it's a once-off and there's the issue of 'can they repeat it?'. But I think they can repeat it."
Six Nations downside?"I wouldn't have agreed with Declan's juggling of the outhalves. I think he's got to make a call, and I do appreciate you need different tactics for different teams, but he has a little jewel there now in Sexton."
How far will Ireland go in the World Cup?"If Ireland beat Australia, then lots of things open for them, like England or France in the semi-finals. But if they don't beat Australia they're going to go a hard route, with the Springboks and New Zealand. So that's the target for them and I think they're well capable of doing it."
Who will win it? "The outstanding favourites are New Zealand, but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't win it, and if they don't you're looking at South Africa – who have won it twice and have only been in it since 1995."
Name your Irish XV to start against Australia:"If Ferris comes back fit, then maybe, but I'd be happy with last week's pack. If Tomás O'Leary is fit I'd go with him in terms of what you need at a World Cup, but I'd be happy with either him or Eoin Reddan. Right wing is taken with Tommy Bowe. Earls had a great game the last day and come the World Cup will be a better player, and I would like to see Luke Fitzgerald back. I like the bit of creativity he brings."
Ralph Keyes
Six Nations upside?"Developing a strength-in-depth. We had our injury problems and three years ago we might have worried about them, but we didn't have to worry as much this time.
Certainly our frame of mind is an awful lot better than it would have been had we won the Welsh game and lost the English game. Mentally, the squad know now that despite frustrating times there’s a wealth of experience in the camp and that will be a massive bonus in the World Cup.”
Six Nations downside?"I don't think there's any major negatives. Okay, things didn't run for them in the earlier games, they were a bit unfortunate, but I don't think there were any major downsides."
How far will Ireland go in the World Cup?"Realistically, no Irish team has got to a semi-final, but if this squad play close to their best they can definitely get to a semi-final, and when you're in the last four of anything, anything can happen. I certainly don't think that's beyond them, in any shape of form."
Who will win the World Cup?"New Zealand."
Name your Irish XV to start against Australia in Eden Park on September 17th:"Assuming everyone is fit it will look something like Healy, Flannery or Best, Ross; O'Callaghan and O'Connell; and the backrow, Wallace, Heaslip and O'Brien or Ferris. O'Leary/Reddan, I would think he will certainly start Sexton, with O'Gara to come on, D'Arcy and O'Driscoll, Bowe, and you can toss a coin after that.
“Earls will play and maybe Kearney and Fitzgerald.
“There’s going to be four or five players vying for two positions in the back three.”
Ollie Campbell
Six Nations upside? "The performance against England and the Aviva coming alive. The emergence of Seán O'Brien and Mike Ross. The continued excellence of Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell, Donncha O'Callaghan, David Wallace, et al. How the contest for the outhalf spot has brought the best out of Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O'Gara. And Italy beating France!"
Six Nations downside? "The Grand Slam that got away, Mike Phillips' "try", and the interminable scrums.
How far will Ireland go in the World Cup?"I desperately want to say semi-final but I'm going to go for a quarter-final."
Who will win it? "I can't see beyond New Zealand, but we've all been saying that for about 20 years now. Here we go again."
Name your Irish XV to start against Australia: "It's a long way away and a lot of water will pass under the bridge between now and then, but I'll go with the same pack as last week.
Half-backs are a little trickier, but I’ll go with the same as last week, Reddan and Sexton. The same centres too and Bowe on the right wing, and then two from five.”
