RUGBY HEINEKEN CUP FINAL Leinster v Northampton:THIS IS it then, the big one. Only a second Heineken Cup final in Leinster's history – or in Northampton's, for that matter. Even for some of the multi-capped Test players, it's bigger than most international matches. This is a career-defining game.
On foot of reaching their first final two years ago, Leinster became (and remain) only the 14th finalists in the cup’s history, while the list of two-time winners is an even more exclusive club. Win under the Millennium’s closed roof today and Leinster join Toulouse, Leicester, Wasps and Munster as a true European superpower. True, the same applies to Northampton after their 9-8 win over Munster in 2000.
Yet that was then, this is now. The Saints scarcely bear comparison with the grizzled generation of Pat Lam and co.
By contrast, this would be a second winners’ medal in three years for the last remnants of Leinster’s golden generation and the core of would-be successors.
“Show us your medals,” is the old sporting maxim which divides the greats from the merely good.
But European finals are hugely demanding and emotionally draining. Ten of the last 11 have been one-score affairs, and arguably Leinster are under the greater mental pressure to deliver.
By contrast, even in defeat Northampton can console themselves that it was a pretty good season, and one of progress for a coming English force.
The cruel irony for Leinster is that, despite their wonderful rugby, despite being the best side in Europe, despite their magnificent achievement in reaching both finals, their enjoyment of their summer holidays hinges more on this game than any other.
No team has ever negotiated a tougher, more impressive route to the final, yet if that stood to them in victories over Leicester and Toulouse in the quarter- and semi-finals, as Joe Schmidt accepts, it probably counts for nothing in such a one-off affair.
“I think finals are two sets of 40 minutes,” said coach Schmidt, who has retained Kevin McLaughlin, Eoin Reddan and Luke Fitzgerald in an unchanged line-up from the quarter- and semi-finals.
“It’s like any competition where there’s two guys competing for one spot, it’s all on the day. Looking at Northampton and some of the things they’ve been talking about, they are very aware of that. They know they’ve as good a chance as we have, despite what the pundits say and what the history is.
“Past performance is exactly that, it’s not the performance that’s going to happen this weekend.
Past experience is the same.
It’s who can stay concentrated and accurate and physically on their game for two sets of 40 minutes.
“That’s one of the great things about this competition. If it was decided on points and on who had the tougher road, I’d be pretty happy with that now as I think maybe we had a tough road. But we may still lose out on that count, as they are actually unbeaten and you don’t do that easy, no matter what pool you’re in.”
In seeking to become the first side to win nine from nine since the current format was introduced in 1997-98, Northampton will do exactly what it says on the tin: they’ll be abrasive from the start.
They’ll maul in their 22 and kick to chase, whereas in the Leinster half they’ll opt for off-the-top ball and launch centre James Downey – of Dublin – up the middle.
They have a dangerous counter-attacking game if Jonny Sexton’s kicking or the chase is awry (but that’s been a strength), and a real cutting edge in Ben Foden – lethal attacking in space – or the roaming Chris Ashton.
But their game is predicated on out-muscling their opponents, primarily through their scrum and maul, and history has shown us that if one pack exerts any kind of edge early on in the scrum, French referee Romain Poite tends to reward them thereafter.
Although the 22 stone wrecking-ball that is Soane Tonga’uiha caused Martin Castrogiovanni one or two awkward moments last week, it was nothing like the scale to which the Tongan and his forward cohorts dismantled the Ulster and Perpignan scrums.
Leicester gave Leinster a pointer by crowding the space as best they could to deny Northampton the hit on which they thrive.
If Mike Ross and co can lock the first scrum or two, the psychological ripple effects will be huge.
What’s more, the scrum is possibly the most improved area of Leinster’s game this season – witness the last two semi-finals against Toulouse – and it acquitted itself admirably against Leicester.
Such is Leinster’s hunger for this trophy that at key moments against Leicester and, especially, Toulouse there were spells in the match when Leinster cranked up their intensity and the tries that followed were almost inevitable.
From the incomparable Seán O’Brien in the backrow all the way through to Isa Nacewa at fullback, Leinster have more match-winners and are more of a team for all conditions.
Although scrumhalf Lee Dickson is good with go-forward ball, at 10-12-13 Leinster have more class and creativity, and though the tries may be fewer and from shorter range these days, such is his sheer presence and all-round quality that Brian O’Driscoll’s participation is a massive boost.
And if all else fails, as the Saints’ poor run during the Six Nations highlighted, their dependency on key men underlines how thin their squad is.
In Heinke van der Meuwe, Stan Wright, Shane Jennings, Isaac Boss and Fergus McFadden, Leinster have the more likely impact replacements, and in a Heineken Cup final, you have to call on your bench.
Leading try scorers: Leinster– S O'Brien 4, I Nacewa, J Sexton, 3 each. Northampton– P Diggin 6, B Foden 3.
Leading points scorers: Leinster– Sexton 110. Northampton– Steve Myler 94.
Betting: 2/5 Leinster, Draw 20/1, 21/10 Northampton. Handicap – 10/11 Leinster (-6), 10/11 Northampton (+6).
Forecast: Leinster, by six to 10.
