RUGBY/Leinster v NG Dragons:PRIVATELY, Leinster won't be too disappointed Connacht didn't shove them over the Magners League finishing line last night by beating Cardiff, whose bonus-point win keeps the title mathematically alive and ensures this evening's expected coronation will not be an anti-climax. It is now perfectly primed for the boys in blue.
Leinster have the chance to win the league for the first time since the inaugural 2001-02 season on the pitch and in front of their fans.
It is their vastly improved away form that has put them ahead of the peloton going into the penultimate round of matches, but at the RDS they have won their last nine games in all competitions.
Throw in the frustration of the recent and latest defeat in their Murrayfield graveyard, the prize at stake, the certainty this will be Keith Gleeson's finale, and that of Ollie le Roux, if they win, and things could hardly be set fairer.
Learning the lessons of last season, Michael Cheika has rotated his squad more this season and they therefore approach the final two rounds fresher mentally and physically than for the last two end-of-season near misses.
Connacht's defeat does ensure the Dragons of the final play-off for next season's Heineken Cup against the third-ranked Italian side, and so they can swing from the hip. They are a better side than their league position suggests, but at face value they would not appear to hold too much danger.
The poor relations of the Welsh regions have lost their last seven matches. What's more, they have lost on their last 15 visits to Ireland, since a 28-21 win in Ravenhill in October 2004, and in their last four visits to Dublin they have conceded a remarkable 179 points, including 20 tries.
Felipe Contepomi, who lines out at centre to accommodate the steadily improving Johnny Sexton at outhalf, has dipped his bread against the Dragons; he has scored 58 points in those four matches, despite not place-kicking in two of them, including four tries.
With Shane Horgan restored, Luke Fitzgerald reverts to the bench, while Gleeson and Malcolm O'Kelly return to the starting line-up in the absence of Leo Cullen, who deserves to be part of this as much as anyone.
The key to Leinster's best performances this season have been the early lines drawn in the sand up front. The arrival of Le Roux in tandem with Bernard Jackman's best form yet and the eye catching improvement in Stanley Wright after a full pre-season and in a fully professional environment have given them ball-carrying ballast and bulk in their close-in driving and mauling they never had before.
It seems reasonable to hope they can win in some style. They've earned this opportunity through their consistency, and will hardly have a better chance to nail a trophy.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll (capt), F Contepomi, R Kearney; J Sexton, C Whitaker; O le Roux, B Jackman, S Wright; T Hogan, M O'Kelly; S Jennings, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: B Blaney, S Knoop, C Jowitt, S Keogh, C Keane, C Warner, L Fitzgerald.
DRAGONS: K Morgan; G Wyatt, P Emerick, G Maule, R Fussell; C Sweeney, A Williams; A Black, S Jones, R Thomas; A Jones, P Sidoli; J Ringer, R Parks, M Owen. Replacements: (from) B Daly, L Harrison, A Hall, P Dollman, J Harris, L Evans, R Mustoe, J Tovey, W Evans.
Referee: Andy Macpherson (Scotland).
Last five meetings: (04-05) Leinster 55 Dragons 3; (05-06) Leinster 33 Dragons 14; Dragons 31 Leinster 18; (06-07) Leinster 35 Dragons 13; Dragons 22 Leinster 23.
Five-game formguide: Leinster - W W W W L. Dragons - L L L L L.
Leading try scorers: Leinster - Luke Fitzgerald, Jamie Heaslip, Shane Horgan 5 each. Dragons - Gareth Wyatt 3.
Leading scorers: Leinster - Felipe Contepomi 115. Dragons - Ceri Sweeney 58.
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/25 Leinster, 40/1 Draw, 8/1 Dragons. Handicap odds (=Dragons +20pts) 10/11 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Dragons.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
