RUGBY ANALYSIS:The province's many arrows can make them look indestructible, writes LIAM TOLAND

‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan’s horrible words must have been echoing all over Munster this week, not to mention in the minds of their players. What did Munster do to deserve this? Is this the beginning of the end?

Certainly not, but it is the end of the beginning for Leinster. Having seen Munster perform time and again over the years, I have little reason for doubt: of course they’ll bounce back, but maybe not this weekend.

Northampton are not a great rugby team but they are pretty good and are playing at home. I know John O’Donoghue will agree that a week is a very short time in politics, but it’s even shorter when you have to travel from Dublin by bus, after a heavy defeat, to Limerick and Cork. Then there is the tough journey to training in alternate city before heading to England within five days.

And in that condensed time Munster will have to get their lineout sorted (without John Hayes), gain confidence in their scrum and further integrate their best backline combination. It’s a tall ask.

Meanwhile, Northampton – with several Irishmen, including Shane Geraghty – are battle-hardened, very settled and full of confidence. They will be dangerous and, as the home side without the travelling, stress and strain, I expect them to finish strongly in the closing championship minutes as they have done thus far in the English Premiership.

I hope Munster haven’t spent too much time on the pitch this week to fix the errors from last week. A win in Franklin’s Gardens will be an enormous achievement.

The reason why Shane Horgan scored that late intercept try wasn’t down to Paul Warwick’s poorly judged pass. Warwick had been playing brilliantly to that point, adding serious penetration on his arrival. The score came from the hunger within the Leinster squad. Horgan has for years been an extraordinary barometer for Leinster, Ireland and the Lions. And he’s not giving up.

His side’s victory in Europe is still very fresh in their minds. To be a top-class, successful athlete one must be hungry and, more importantly, selfish. Last week Leinster proved regardless of style that they are focused on the selfish act of winning, be it against the Ospreys or Munster.

In the 40th minute Munster, in typical style, kicked a penalty deep inside the Leinster half. The subsequent Munster lineout went over the top to Leinster’s Shane Jennings. His instinct was spot on, offloading to Johnny Sexton who in turn skipped Gordon D’Arcy to Brian O’Driscoll.

The crowd expected O’Driscoll to test the Munster turnover defence by attacking, but here’s where the sea change in Leinster has occurred. In times gone by a risky Leinster attack would have leaked an error to offer Munster a seven-pointer and game over. But O’Driscoll checked his run, stepped inside Lifeimi Mafi and drilled the ball into the Munster half. The lineout once again was lost and Isa Nacewa was on hand down the blindside to pop the ball into the Munster corner.

Leinster’s two best broken-field runners elected to play field position over a risky break. They have learned from Munster and added these lessons to their natural style to produce a ruthless form of attack and defence.

Kevin McLaughlin won it, and Cian Healy was unlucky to miss out on last week’s man of the match award. But the player who caught my eye, flying under the radar, was Nathan Hines. His work-rate is excellent, his lineout very good and his contribution in both the scrum and maul is critical. Even though his time on the ball is relatively limited he adds value with every touch.

Leinster are a working team where “one arrow alone can be easily broken but many arrows are indestructible”. Hines is a tough hybrid, placed between Malcolm O’Kelly and Leo Cullen. That makes, including Bob Casey, four serious secondrows tonight.

I simply can’t wait for tonight’s all-Irish encounter. London Irish, lying second in the Premiership, have three times the points differential of their league leaders Saracens, who have won an extra match. They score a lot of points (including bonuses), but Leinster conceded “nul points” last weekend.

Samoan international Sailosi Tagicakibau, who won London Irish’s players’ player award last year, is the man to watch. Leinster’s defence has been extraordinary, but so too has Irish’s attack and Tagicakibau can score from very far out.

London Irish are a set-piece team that place lineout steals very highly. It’s a big night for Casey.

For many years the debate raged about the quality of the Premiership over the Magners League. I expect this to be answered tonight.

And what about the steady rise of Ulster? Their opening Magners League game was worrying, but Brian McLaughlin’s men have gained momentum. Can they get out of the group? The fixture layout is crucial. A home game against Bath to start is a must win. But Edinburgh away follows.

The middle two fixtures will be the making of Ulster. Of the three provincial middle fixtures, Ulster have the toughest. They play against Stade Français home and away. Leinster and Munster’s matches are a little less treacherous with Scarlets and Perpignan.

The key for success in the pool stages is hoping your main rival becomes unstuck in these middle fixtures, as the final away fixture may be against them. Some time back Leinster played and beat Toulouse in round one at home in Donnybrook after the fixture was switched from France due to an explosion in a chemical plant. By the return fixture Toulouse were out of the competition, beat Leinster and didn’t make the play-offs. Leinster did.

Hence a loss for Munster tomorrow doesn’t mean the end, but with Stade Français around the corner a loss to Bath for Ulster tonight will be the end.

It’s a tough competition.