Heineken Cup / Pool Five Preview / Leinster v Bath: Maybe it was the damp, dreary weather but the pessimists of doom seem to be circling around Leinster at the prospect of them going toe-to-toe with Bath.
Drawing two opponents who were inflicted with double whammies last season wasn't ideal and, mindful of Leinster's get-out-of-jail trick at the Rec last season, Bath's huge pack is itching for this one.
The word from the Bath camp is that they twice did a number on the Leinster pack but made the mistake of playing with too much width, and therefore into Leinster's hands, in both meetings last season. The inference being that they intend to stick it up their jumpers this time.
They've also arrested a run of three successive defeats with four wins on the bounce, and come into this game buoyed by a gutsy win over neighbours Gloucester, despite playing much of the match with seven forwards, thanks in the main to the Trojan efforts of Danny Grewcock, Steve Borthwick and co.
Suspensions for Andy Higgins and David Barnes, and Matt Perry's injury obliges coach John Connolly to recall Tom Cheeseman in midfield and Lee Best at full back, as well as Lions and England loosehead Matt Stevens, which means all their heavies are there up front.
Leinster coach Michael Cheika makes the point that last season's meetings aren't especially relevant given the teams' personnel have changed so much. Yet five of the Bath pack, Duncan Bell, Borthwick, Grewcock, Andrew Beattie and the rumbling Isaac Feaunati, remain from that game at the Rec when Leinster's lineout was all but obliterated, while the return of Stevens and the emergence of Lee Mears hardly weakens their hand.
Cheika's observation is more relevant when applied to Leinster for, remarkably, only four of the team that started in the Rec do so again: Girvan Dempsey, Shane Horgan, Gordon D'Arcy and Reggie Corrigan. Following the departures of Leo Cullen, Shane Byrne and Shane Jennings, (not to mention Aiden McCullen), and the retirement of their most capped European Cup player Victor Costello, as well as David Holwell, Leinster have been hit by injuries to four of their Lions: Brian O'Driscoll, Denis Hickie, Malcolm O'Kelly and Eric Miller. Furthermore, Christian Warner and Guy Easterby are also on the casualty list.
To his credit, Cheika never makes an issue of injuries, taking them as part and parcel of the game. Even so, the somewhat callow team that takes to the RDS today features six players making their first starts in the competition: Kieran Lewis, Robert Kearney, Brian O'Riordan, David Blaney, Bryce Williams and Jamie Heaslip.
Leinster will need big performances up front, especially, one ventures, from Williams and Ben Gissing, while Ciaran Potts and Heaslip will need to be every bit as downright physical as they were against the comparatively toothless Cardiff Blues.
More can be expected from O'Riordan too, and while Felipe Contepomi's influence mightn't be so pronounced at outhalf, simply because he has more traffic in front of him, he, Horgan and D'Arcy will ultimately hold the key to Leinster's chances.
If their lineout holds up then Leinster have the capacity to move Bath around, play at a high tempo and the positive intentions to create openings.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; K Lewis, G D'Arcy, S Horgan, R Kearney; F Contepomi (capt), B O'Riordan; R Corrigan, B Blaney, W Green, B Gissing, B Williams, C Potts, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. REPLACEMENTS: B Jackman, E Byrne, M O'Kelly, D Dillon, B O'Meara, E Hickey, J Hepworth.
BATH RUGBY: L Best; D Bory, T Cheeseman, O Barkley, F Welsh; C Malone, M Wood; M Stevens, L Mears, D Bell, S Borthwick (capt), D Grewcock, A Beattie, J Scaysbrook, I Feaunati. Replacements: P Dixon, C Loader, G Delve, J Hudson, N Walshe, R Davis, S Finau.
Referee: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales).
Previous meetings: 2004-5: Leinster 30 Bath 11; Bath 23 Leinster 27.
Formguide: Leinster: L W W W L W. Bath: L L L W W W W.
EC record: Leinster: Pl 59, W 37, D 1, L 21. 2002-3: 1995-96: s/f. 96-97: Pool. 97-98: Pool. 98-99: Pool. 99-00: Pool. 00-01: s/f. Pool. 01-02: q/f. 02-03: s/f. 03-04: Pool. 04-05: q/f. Bath: Pl 39, W 28, D 0, L 11. 1996-97: q/f. 97-98: Winners. 99-00: Pool. 00-01: Pool. 01-02: q/f. 04-05: Pool.
Leading try-scorers: Leinster: Denis Hickie 16, Gordon D'Arcy 15, Shane Horgan 14. Bath: Mike Catt 9, Tom Voyce 7.
Leading points scorers: Leinster: Alan McGowan 225, Brian O'Meara 192, David Holwell 104. Bath: Jonathan Callard 216, Olly Barkley 103.
Betting (Paddy Power): 4/9 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 13/8 Bath. Handicap odds (= Bath +6pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Bath.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
RDS, 5.15, RTE 2, Sky Sports 1
