Kinane can triumph on Montjeu

Michael Kinane, successful in the 1989 Arc de Triomphe on Carroll House, looks to have a good chance of a second success in the…

Michael Kinane, successful in the 1989 Arc de Triomphe on Carroll House, looks to have a good chance of a second success in the Parisian showcase race on Montjeu at Longchamp tomorrow.

Very impressive in both the French Derby and the Irish equivalent, Montjeu has been trained especially with this race in mind.

Admittedly, Montjeu was far from impressive when scrambling home in his prep race, the Prix Niel, but he was far from fully wound up that day.

Granted normal improvement since, and with the forecast heavy ground a definitive plus, expect to see a vastly different Montjeu.

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Daylami's impressive wins in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and the Esat Digifone Champion Stakes stamp him as an obvious danger. Although connections have voiced concerns over the ground. They will inspect the track before making a decision over the Godolphin entire's participation, the operation's racing manager Simon Crisford revealed yesterday.

The current penetrometer reading at the course - 5.0 - equates to heavy ground, with conditions certain to deteriorate if the forecast rain materialises in Paris.

And although Daylami has shown he is effective with give - the going at Leopardstown was officially yielding to soft when he won the Esat Digifone Champion by nine lengths last month - Crisford did admit the grey's camp were "very concerned".

"It is true to say we are very concerned about the state of the ground, and with the weather forecast through the weekend looking particularly bleak with rain predicted, it does raise some questions," he said.

"But as we speak right now, Daylami is an intended runner in the race. He will travel tomorrow and we are hoping he will run, but we reserve the right to pull him out.

"We will wait to see the track, how the racing goes and what the weather does, but the plan is to run him.

"The forecast is particularly bad but we will wait and see what materialises. We know he goes on soft ground, but this is worse than soft ground."

William Hill have pushed Daylami out to 9 to 4 second favourite (from 15 to 8) for the race, and shored favourite Montjeu up to 11 to 8 (from 6 to 4).

Others expected to figure prominently are the Japanese star El Condor Pasa, Tiger Hill and Borgia. Croco Rouge and Greek Dance look the best outsiders.

Aidan O'Brien's Genghis Khan is expected to be sacrificed as a pacemaker to Montjeu.

The Irish presence is numerically strongest in the Group One Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp, where Black Rock Desert, Timote and Antinnaz could be in for a tough time against Bertolini and Sainte Marine.

Jim Bolger's Dazzling Park, runner-up in the Esat Disgifone Champion Stakes, looks to have better prospects in the Group Two Prix de l'Opera.

The two-day Arc Festival, sponsored for the first time by Lucien Barriere group, kicks off today at Longchamp and features three Irish runners.

Michael Grassick's San Sebastian will be out to improve on his 1998 third in the Prix du Cadran, where he has Invermark and Tajoun in his way.

John Oxx could well land a double with Strategic (Prix Dollar) and Edabiya (Prix Hubert de Chaudenay).

Michael Stoute is optimistic his Juddmonte International runner-up Greek Dance will handle conditions in the Arc, but expressed concern over the ground for Great Voltigeur winner Fantastic Light, who got the better of last year's Derby winner HighRise on soft ground at Newbury recently.

Stoute said of Greek Dance: "His preparation has gone well. He went on good to soft ground at Haydock but this will be heavy, so we will just have to hope he will handle that type of ground.

"I heard this morning that it was five something, which means it is heavy. They either handle it or they don't. The dam, Hellenic, went through very soft ground in the Ribblesdale."

The Freemason Lodge trainer added of Fantastic Light: "He has won on soft ground, but I would prefer him on good to firm ground. I think his smoothest performance was in the Voltigeur - he was always going to win the Voltigeur and I would prefer him on that sort of surface, so I would expect he could find this sort of ground difficult."

Richard Quinn, rider of John Dunlop's Leggera, second to Sagamix 12 months ago, welcomed any further rainfall. "She needs the rain," he said. "I know they are saying it is soft over there today, but today doesn't count - it has got to be soft on Sunday."

Delivering his latest bulletin on conditions at Longchamp, the track's manager Gerard Grandchamps forecast that the ground would register a penetrometer reading of 4.5 - equivalent to holding - come Sunday.

"It is 4.9 on the fresh ground on the rails which will be used for the Arc," he said.

"The ground has been absorbing it well and if I had to make a prediction, it would be 4.5 on Sunday."