DESPITE being cautious by nature, I suspect John Oxx would be quite confident of Key Change winning today's Jefferson Smurfit Irish St Leger on a yielding surface. The going is likely to be on the firm side, but this filly won the Yorkshire Oaks on similar ground, having failed narrowly to win the Ribblesdale Stakes on even faster terrain at Royal Ascot.

The Oxx family have a good record in the final Classic, the late John senior winning with the filly Lynchris in 1960 and Biscayne four years later, while John saddled the fillies Eurobird and Petite Ile to win in the late 80s.

John Oxx was pleasantly surprised that Key Change went so close to winning at Ascot, where, although banging her nose on leaving the stalls, made ground hand over fist in the closing stages to finish a neck off the Chantilly trained Tulipa.

She then ran well to finish third behind Dance Design and Shamadara in the Irish Oaks and once again surprised her trainer when overcoming fast ground to win the Group One Yorkshire Oaks in fast time. Shamadara who had finished a couple of lengths ahead of the Irish filly at the Curragh, was now over five lengths adrift but ran well below par. Key Change was treated for some muscular trouble after her return and was held up in her work. However, she runs well when fresh and this tough, staying filly is a worthy favourite.

Despite the three prong British challenge, Key Change may have most to fear from Oscar Schindler, whose trainer Kevin Prendergast won in successive years with Pidget and Conor Pass.

Oscar Schindler is a stronger and more mature colt than last year, when he failed to win but ran fine races in both the Irish Derby and Irish St Leger.

He was a little disappointing in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes on his last appearance, finishing 10 lengths behind the third horse, Shaamit. He had every chance two furlongs down and but for being squeezed for room, would have finished that bit closer. Prior to that he won the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes over the course and distance, relegating Posidonas to third place, four lengths adrift.

Posidonas has seemingly improved, giving the high class and consistent Sing spiel 5lb and a beating in a Group Two at Newmarket; failing by a short head to land a Group One from the smart German mare Hollywood Dream at Dusseldorf, and, last time out, failing to get the best of runs when second to the filly Phantom Gold in a Group Two at Newbury.

Phantom Gold was well behind Posidonas at Dusseldorf and, interestingly, behind Oscar Schindler and Posidonas at Ascot. Posidonas looks the pick of the English challengers.

There were excuses for Gordi, who disappointed in the Doncaster St Leger, and while expecting him to run a better race today, I doubt if he will be good enough. There have been better class Irish St Legers, but Key Change has the right credentials.

First and third in the Group One Heinz 57 Phoenix Stakes, Mantovani and Verglas renew rivalry in the Aga Khan Studs National Stakes, which has attracted four English trained youngsters. Verglas was made favourite to win at Leopardstown, as his trainer, Kevin Prendergast, thought he would appreciate the ease in the going. The ground was pretty dead and Mantovani fared best to register a shock 20 to 1 success.

Verglas had won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and it appears that he is at his best on fast ground. He was most impressive in beating Daylight In Dubai on that occasion, and I see no good reason why he should not confirm the placings with Peter Savill's colt.

Johan Cruyff impressed in winning his maiden at Leopardstown and Beautiful Flower is another to consider. Verglas is a fine colt and this seven furlongs should be within his compass.

Short headed by Ailleacht in a listed race at Leopardstown last month, Ger's Royale can win the Smurfit Paribas Bank Race for John Reid, who would also win the MacDonagh and Boland Stakes on Ramooz if that three year old could reproduce his very good, albeit luckless, run in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. John Oxx's Irish Cambridgeshire winner Raiyoun is an obvious danger.