RUGBY:THE AVIVA'S under-soil heating has been switched on since yesterday, though come kick-off we may all be wishing it had under-seated heating as well, given the ominous arctic forecasts. Ireland, a tad wearily after mixing it with the Boks, Samoans and All Blacks, go to an icy well one last time, whereas the Argentinians are primed for one final autumnal fling. The Pumas don't do respite.
With them, the collective is always greater than the individual parts. Their perceived sense of injustice with the IRB and the refereeing fraternity helps to foster an us-against-the-world mentality.
They may not have a team of all the talents, but they retain an incredibly strong spine through their grizzled frontrow and Patricio Albacete to their warrior number eight, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, and, of course, some doctor called Felipe Contepomi.
In an echo of their last taut arm wrestle in Croke Park two years ago, amid this weekend’s clamour for end-of-year ranking slots (all except number one, needless to say) Ireland and Argentina go into this 11th collision in 11 years ranked seventh and eighth in the world, but each knowing a win will see them climb to sixth.
Whereas Rodrigo Roncero and the Clermont duo of Mario Ledesma and Martin Scelzo will be packing down for the 16th Test together, the Cian Healy-Seán Cronin-Tony Buckley triumvirate will do so for just the third time.
Whereas the Pumas veterans (average age 35) boast 129 Test starts between them, the Irish tyros (average age 26) have just 15.
As ever when playing the Pumas, the lines in the sand will be drawn up front, at maul time and around the fringes, with the Argentinians launching their big rumblers through pick-and-goes or one-off target runners, or then taking it up the middle through the aptly-named Marcelo Bosch.
A week after the Lord Mayor’s Ball, as it were, this will be a big ask, all the more so as rugby is, firstly, a physical fight, but perhaps ever more so against the Pumas.
With Stephen Ferris, Jamie Heaslip and co leading the way, first up Ireland have to meet Argentina head-on physically and further earn the right to play with hard, dynamic carries to prevent the visitors’ umbrella defence cutting off Ireland’s outside runners.
Only then can Ireland make their back line’s superior pace, footwork and skills count. Patience will be a virtue for team and crowd alike, as well as commitment, but having done that, at some points Ireland simply have to use that sharper strike power.
Bravery isn’t just about putting one’s body on the line. It’s taking risks and being creative on the ball. With the recalled Peter Stringer’s razor-sharp service and the ability of Geordan Murphy (recalled for a 16th time, and described by Brian O’Driscoll yesterday as “a thinking man’s player”) to hit the line, run trailers and link, not to mention counter-attack, it would be even more wasteful to become embroiled in trench warfare. This would suit Argentina more than Ireland, and those who ignore the lessons of history are apt to repeat them.
The selection of Stringer, especially, would appear to indicate as much, though ironically given Argentina invented the thing, it takes two to tango, and Declan Kidney yesterday warned against expecting another gung-ho Irish approach. “A basic thing is New Zealand give you the outside shoulder to attack, Argentina don’t; they’re inclined to flood the midfield so why go to a place where the opposition are defending strongly?
“So, we have to challenge them there because otherwise they’ll be smart enough to change themselves but also we have to be wise enough to know when to challenge them there and when to go to other places, and that’s what we have to do as an Irish side.”
In its own way, as good an indicator then of where Ireland are as last week’s meeting with the world’s best. And after defeats to South Africa and New Zealand, the result here will now go a long way toward defining the month.
The law amendments have not done Argentina many favours, and Mark Lawrence will help whatever flow there may be. Kidney has picked a team to win, and allowing for scrum difficulties, they have more arrows in their quiver.
IRELAND: G Murphy; T Bowe, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, A Trimble; J Sexton, P Stringer; C Healy, S Cronin, T Buckley, D O'Callaghan, M O'Driscoll, S Ferris, D Wallace, J Heaslip. Replacements: D Varley, T Court, D Toner, D Leamy, E Reddan, R O'Gara, K Earls.
ARGENTINA: M Rodriguez; H Agulla, G Tiesi, M Bosch, L Gonzalez Amorosino; F Contepomi (capt), N Vergallo; R Roncero, M Ledesma, M Scelzo, M Galarza, P Albacete, G Fessia, J Farias Cabello, J Fernandez Lobbe . Replacements: A Creevy, M Ayerza, J Figallo, S Guzman, A Galindo, A Lalanne, LBorges.
Previous meetings:Played 11, Ireland 6 wins, Argentina 5 wins.
Last five meetings:(2009) Ireland 17 Argentina 3; (2007 RWC) Argentina 30 Ireland 15; (2007) Argentina 16 Ireland 0; Argentina 22 Ireland 20; (2004) Ireland 21 Argentina 19.
Five-game formguide: Ireland– L 18-38 v New Zealand (h); W 20-10 v Samoa (h); L 21-23 v South Africa (h); L 15-22 v Australia (a); L 28-66 v New Zealand (h). Argentina– L 9-15 v France (a); W 22-16 v Italy (a); W 41-13 v France (h); L 9-13 v Scotland (h); L 16-24 v Scotland (h).
Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/3 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 11/5 Argentina. Handicap odds (Argentina + 7 pts) 10/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Argentina.
Forecast :Ireland to win.
