WHEN the Royal and Ancient published its paper "The Demand for Golf" in 1988, indications were that Ireland had some catching up to do if a desirable level of facilities was to be achieved. Eight years on, the latest figures suggest that the supply now exceeds demand.

Indeed there is a belief that, while remaining highly competitive, the market may force certain facilities to undergo radical restructuring during the next decade. And even at that, some of the more vulnerable courses may not survive.

These developments come as no surprise to Jim Mansfield, owner of the Citywest complex, which is now in its third season. While his establishment has been prospering, he has watched others struggle, mainly because they lack the quality of his location, just off the N7 near Saggart, Co Dublin.

"To be honest, I don't know how some courses are surviving, he said. "I make regular trips over them in my helicopter and I simply don't see the customers on the fairways. If you're removed from the main centres of population, it's always going to be a problem."

He went on: "Between conferences, weddings and green fees, my business is sufficiently diverse to keep me going, whatever the weather. From keeping a close watch on the competition, however, I don't see the same level of activity. Unless you're a Ballybunion or Killarney, you re facing an uphill battle if you're depending on the bus or train to deliver your next customers."

Golf in Ireland is a 32 county game, which means that the sport's governing bodies here - the GUI and the Irish Ladies' Golf Union - legislate for the whole of the island. For the purposes of its 1988 paper, however, the R and A concentrated only on Britain and Northern Ireland.

Still, even in that narrow, Irish context, comparisons are revealing. Eight years ago there were 58 facilities in Northern Ireland, or one per 27,259 of the province's inhabitants. Despite the limitations in development caused by the troubles, the present figure for the six counties is 81 facilities, or one per 19,519. The increase for the Republic has been even more dramatic.

At the first international "Golf Theory in Practice" conference, held at the University of Ulster recently, marketing consultant David Pryor from Malahide, delivered a paper on the commercial golf market in this country. His conclusions were particularly interesting in the context of recent Bord Failte figures showing that golf tourism increased by 20 per cent last year.

According to Pryor, the Irish golf market has witnessed unprecedented growth in both supply and demand. For instance, during a five year period starting in 1990, 71 new courses were opened in this country an increase of 27 per cent.

More recent figures show an increase from 338 to 349 courses throughout the whole of the island during the last year. And since 1990, the official male golfing population has grown from 138,900 to 193,226 - an increase of 23 per cent, while among women, the increase during those years has been 27 per cent - from 29,970 to 41,000.

Equally revealing was a report commissioned by the Irish Golf Course Owners Association in December 1994 which found that during the previous three years, there had been a 25 per cent increase in golfing capacity in this country. And of the additional 129 courses registered with the GUI since 1987, more than 70 were commercial enterprises.

This showed a dramatic increase from 1987 itself when, of the 191 courses registered with the GUI, only 13 were commercial or public facilities. The commercial club was spawned in some cases by disenchantment among farmers with EU quotas, or by a recognition of the need to fill a gap in the market for both domestic and overseas players. But the indications are that the process has been overdone.

The current number of 349 courses means that the ratio of facility per population is roughly one to every 14,300 inhabitants on the island. When one considers that in 1988, the R and A set themselves a target of 1:25,000 for Britain and Northern Ireland by the year 2000, the growth here has been remarkable.

Meanwhile, in their review of the Operational Programme for Tourism (1989 to 1993), Bord Failte estimated that about £200 million was invested in 28 new commercial golf courses and 18 clubhouses. Financial assistance came from £11.2 million of EU structural funding, disbursed by the board.

As a consequence, by 1994, commercial operations accounted for one third of all golf clubs (83 out of 261) which were open to visitors. And as many as 90 per cent of the 107 courses opened in Ireland during the 15 years from 1980, were commercial facilities.

A modest growth has also taken place in municipal courses of which there are five in the Dublin area, apart from the £2 million investment by Fingal County Council in Elm Green.

According to Pryor, a number of the country's golfing developments are still at the "bedding in" stage and it will be some time before they are profitable ventures in their own right. Those lacking commercial backing from other sources, may find themselves in trouble.

By the year 2000 it is expected that supply will comfortably outstrip demand in certain locations. Flexible pricing and joint packaging programmes will be required early morning and mid week specials will become the norm. Even at that, greater marketing resources will be required for some of these courses to survive into the following decade.

Pryor concludes that a failure to adopt a commercial led approach, will force a number of courses to restructure their funding positions, with the bleak alternative of being put up for sale at a discounted rate. He believes this to be especially true of a number of existing establishments in Dublin, Waterford, Limerick and Clare.