History weighs heavy but still Dublin's to lose

GAELIC GAMES: THIS AFTERNOON’S GAA All-Ireland football quarter-final is, as has been relentlessly pointed out since the counties…

GAELIC GAMES:THIS AFTERNOON'S GAA All-Ireland football quarter-final is, as has been relentlessly pointed out since the counties rolled out of the draw together, more about Dublin than Kerry.

Kerry have looked a tired team this season but that’s hardly a surprise after contesting five All-Ireland finals on the spin. Dublin have looked significantly improved so far. Under new management, they have introduced new players, seen a fully fit Bernard Brogan emerge as the top-class finisher he has always promised to be and demonstrated tenacity under the unexpected pressure of losing a man early in the Leinster final.

But. But. But.

During this decade, which has seen the introduction of the qualifier system, the shape of championship challenge has changed. Half the All-Ireland winners have not been provincial winners and all four of those reconfigured their teams to optimum effect during the qualifiers.

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In that time Dublin have been travelling the old route, dominating Leinster but only rarely having the opportunity to put the lessons of defeat to good use.

Kerry, on the other hand, have reached the All-Ireland final in each of the championships that required them to come through the qualifiers. They also have the most formidable record of any county at this stage. This afternoon is their ninth successive quarter-final – the only county to have contested every year’s – and they have yet to lose one.

They have hit the pedals at this stage before as qualifiers: defeating then All-Ireland champions Galway in 2002, a well-fancied Armagh in ’06 and last year in one of the matches of the year, Galway again.

Conversely, Dublin in quarter-finals have been the bone on which teams have sharpened their teeth, principally Tyrone in 2005 and last year, when Mickey Harte’s side built a successful All-Ireland challenge on playing and beating the Leinster champions.

The fact Kerry haven’t looked remotely near All-Ireland standard this season has to be weighed against the reality that the county’s seasons in the modern game don’t begin until August. The form of key players – Colm Cooper, Marc Ó Sé and Declan O’Sullivan – may be temporarily subdued but their talent hasn’t evaporated.

The key question is how will Dublin respond if Kerry show a marked improvement? Last year’s disintegration in the tropical storm of Croke Park’s rain and Tyrone’s heat has to be partly set against the loss of their key player, Alan Brogan, after a few minutes.

Under Pat Gilroy and Mickey Whelan the team plays less to a programme and more on the basis of what’s in front of them on a given day. The composure in adversity against Kildare was striking but Dublin haven’t beaten genuine contenders since Meath in ’02.

Their forward movement has been excellent and will test an ailing Kerry defence, centrefield has done all it has needed to – Ciarán Whelan’s contribution in the Leinster final re-enacting the pas de trois with Shane Ryan and Eamonn Fennell against Westmeath last year – and the defence coped the last day, even if the ball retention and attacking breaks were more conspicuous than curbing the opposition.

Two years ago a good Kerry team had enough nous to deal with the display in which Dublin came closest to the All-Ireland standard. The Leinster champions have improved in the meantime whereas their opponents – even on the basis that Kieran Donaghy, so influential that day, is injured – aren’t as good. It’s Dublin’s to lose.

DUBLIN: S Cluxton; D Henry, D Bastick, P Andrews; P Griffin (capt), B Cullen, B Cahill; R McConnell, D Magee; P Flynn, D Connolly, B Brogan; A Brogan, C Keaney, J Sherlock.

KERRY: D Murphy; M Ó Sé, T Griffin, T O’Sullivan; T Ó Sé, M McCarthy, K Young; D Ó Sé, S Scanlon; P Galvin, Declan O’Sullivan, D Walsh; C Cooper, T Walsh, Darran O’Sullivan (capt).

Referee: Pat McEnaney (Monaghan).