Gut instinct tells me it's Kerry

CORK, APART from a slight slip against Limerick in the Munster final, have been the form team all year and unlike all their previous…

CORK, APART from a slight slip against Limerick in the Munster final, have been the form team all year and unlike all their previous meetings with Kerry in Croke Park they arrive tomorrow with the necessary confidence to finally prevail.

The maturing of so many players has been crucial in the rapid progress made this season. These talented young men all possess an inner belief that they can beat Kerry. They certainly don’t fear the green and gold jersey and their record at under-21 level proves it.

Every question asked of them these past few months has resulted in emphatic answers, primarily in the Munster semi-final replay, against Donegal and then the defeat of Tyrone.

The tireless, swarming defensive approach adopted by Conor Counihan’s team is best exemplified by the work of Paddy Kelly and Alan O’Connor out the field. Kerry, in marked contrast, have stumbled through the championship since losing to Cork.

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Not that this matters anymore because they are where they always desired to be; the need to atone for last September’s defeat to Tyrone provides a fresh impetus.

And, of course, they love playing Cork, even this excellent Cork outfit.

Also, they are a stronger unit 12 months on with three hugely significant players back in the fold. The impact of Paul Galvin, Tadhg Kennelly and especially Mike McCarthy at centre back cannot be overemphasised.

Mike Mac gels this Kerry defence together. Jack O’Connor convincing him to return must be seen as a masterstroke.

There is one slight difference that I see separating the teams in the final 10 minutes, presuming Kerry cope with Cork’s power game.

But before that point is made we must examine a number of match-ups as dominance in any of these areas could decide matters.

Both teams play to similar systems. It is based upon pace, movement and rapid distribution of possession through the hands out of defence. Control of the ball is a key element with both teams ultra-conscious of avoiding sloppy turnovers.

Cork came close to perfecting this approach against Tyrone, the pioneers of this style, in the semi-final. They enveloped the defending champions with their middle six bringing their physicality and athleticism to bear.

It allows half backs Graham Canty and John Miskella to explode from deep (Tomás Ó Sé and McCarthy operate in near identical roles for Kerry), with rapid hand-passing off the shoulder opening up the field and creating quality ball for Daniel Goulding and Colm O’Neill to profit in the inside forward line.

It is an obvious and repetitive statement but the key area will be around the middle third and whichever team mops up the most breaking ball. Tomás has improved in this regard recently and his indirect duel with Miskella will prove fascinating and crucial. Paul Galvin is a master of gathering loose ball.

The eldest Ó Sé brother, so long the wielder of fatal blows to Cork teams, must summon one last epic performance from the reservoir. Darragh may even be required for 70 minutes as I doubt Kieran Donaghy has enough football in him to make an impact at midfield. I have no doubt we shall see Donaghy in the full forward line at some stage.

I feel Mike Mac must take Pearse O’Neill up the field to neutralise his brutal and direct running.

Tadhg Kennelly, although named at wing forward, looks the ideal man to shadow Canty – Cork’s leader and most inspirational figure. Kennelly is used to covering patches of green three times the size of Croke Park and his professional background could see him take Canty out to the wings and keep him focused primarily on defensive duties.

Declan O’Sullivan is named on the 40 but his true strengths are always more obvious closer to goal, be it creating or taking scores. Colm Cooper and Anthony Lynch will renew acquaintances, with the Gooch owing the veteran Cork defender a few points after their last meeting.

A serious concern for Cork is their lack of height in the full back line and that is why Tommy Walsh has been rewarded for his performance off the bench against Meath. Michael Shields is a fine player but he struggled on a similar big man, Donegal’s Michael Murphy.

In contrast to last year, there will be a greater mix of short, low Kerry deliveries into the corners. A greater interchange of players has also developed with the high ball into Walsh and eventually Donaghy no longer the primary option. Last year’s final saw ball after ball dropped into the twin towers and it was easily defended by the McMahon brothers.

Walsh’s presence, however, remains crucial. Derek Kavanagh could be the ideal tonic to counter this threat or Donaghy’s introduction could see Counihan react by launching Kavanagh into the fray.

This brings us to the use of these two highly talented benches. Donaghy looks the ideal impact sub but that title currently belongs to Cork’s Fintan Goold. Michael Cussen is Cork’s version of Donaghy and is yet another option should Cork choose to change matters dramatically be it at full forward or midfield.

There are so many valid changes that movements on the line will require as much attention as on the field of play.

Cooper, Declan O’Sullivan and possibly Donaghy will get into positions to win it for Kerry. Just like Goulding and O’Neill will be provided big opportunities for Cork.

My gut instinct tells me the experience of these Kerrymen will tell at the critical junctures, namely in the home strait.

The fact that Kerry have been through so much this year, and survived, means they will keep working for each other in the face of immense pressure from this massive Cork side. It is an unprecedented sixth All-Ireland final appearance for some of them and I just feel they know how to win.

There is a concern about the lack of a natural long-range and left-hand side free-taker with Bryan Sheehan and Paul O’Connor held in reserve. Against that, Donnacha O’Connor’s free- taking can be indifferent for Cork.

This will be nothing like the Dublin match. Cork will not stand off and let them play. Instead, they will seek to overpower, outrun and then outplay Kerry.

This makes it critical for Kerry to stay with them. I feel they can hold pace and, if so, their quality can shine through.

But it will be ever so close.