RUGBY AUSTRALIA v IRELAND:IN KEEPING with previous treks to Australia, amid the Friday night buzz of downtown Brisbane there was a palpable sense of another impending Green Army invasion. The ex-pats have converged like moths to a flame, from all corners of Australia and even Singapore and no doubt beyond.
Tricolours not only bedecked plenty of bars around town but apartments too on roads leading to Suncorp Stadium in Milton to the north of the city. Any Irish person living in “Briz” tells of every floor space being taken up. The Irish are coming. It should all make for a cracking sense of occasion.
Suncorp, home to the Queensland rugby league and lately union sides, has almost sold out to its 52,000 capacity. Yesterday the ground echoed to the Irish kickers familiarising themselves with the steepling stands, which lend weight to Les Kiss’s “lunchbox” description of the stadium.
Ronan O’Gara appeared more animated than Jonathan Sexton, perhaps as the pressure is off him to a degree, but he must be in a strange place. On 99 caps, he is set to become only the third Irish player to reach a century, yet won’t know if today will be the day.
You’d hope, for his sake, that he either comes on and kicks the winning penalty or instead leads the side out in one of the November Tests at the Aviva, either of which would be preferable to a five-minute run-on with the game already won.
As with that scenario, the line-ups add to the slightly surreal backdrop. With both sides ravaged by injuries, Australia retain only two of the pack and four of the backs (all wearing different numbers) from the sides that met each other last November, while similarly, Ireland retain two of the pack and five of the backs.
One ventures Ireland haven’t encountered such an unproven tight five in yonks, but against that Ireland’s tight five is not at optimum level either. On top of this, Cian Healy was a minor concern yesterday when sitting out the captain’s run with a back strain.
The Wallabies are also arguably strongest in the area where Ireland look most unproven, the backrow. In truth only the absence of eight backrowers who have played for Ireland this past season could account for this permutation; ie an openside (Niall Ronan) turned into an emergency blindside, a debutant number eight (Chris Henry) along with a proven, experienced campaigner, Shane Jennings, who nonetheless has only started in three of his previous eight Tests.
It’s hard to envisage either side having a pronounced edge at scrum time, less so that Gert Smal and his troops will have rectified the evident confusion at lineout time against the All Blacks. Seán Cronin, thrown in at the deep end there, hung in gamily and should also be better for the experience, while this looks, finally, to be Tony Buckley’s breakthrough tour.
But ultimately, how the Irish backrow can impose themselves on Rocky Elsom, David Pocock and Richard Brown, and in the contact/breakdown area especially, probably holds the key. The more influential plays they can come up with, the better Ireland’s chances.
Elsom made a couple of interesting points about former teammates. Citing Sexton’s nerveless first penalty when replacing Felipe Contepomi in the Heineken Cup semi-final, he said: “He doesn’t necessarily seem like the kind of guy who handles pressure well but when it comes down to it, he normally does. I’m sure he gets very nervous but when he’s actually out there, he handles it really well.”
Regarding Jennings, Elsom observed “his effectiveness often gets missed if you’re watching the telecast but when you’re playing with him or playing against him, you realise how much influence he can have on a match.”
Diplomatically, Elsom didn’t rule out a return to Leinster one day. “Well, I had a great time up there. I could think of plenty of worse places to go.”
Brian O’Driscoll, meanwhile, agreed with Kidney that a good start is critical, all the more so after going 10-0 down in 11 minutes against the All Blacks (even before Jamie Heaslip was sent off) and 15-0 down after 13 minutes against the Maoris.
“Starting well and just getting a bit of consistency about our game and giving them respect but not too much respect. Definitely trying to impose our game on them is a must. I think we’ve shown great components of it during the tour, but just in fits and starts. It just has to be an 80-minute job.”
After Matt Giteau’s place-kicking horrors last week, apparently Quade Cooper will take kicks from the left (being a right-footer), with the left-footed Giteau taking them from the right. It’s not clear who’ll take the straight ones – for they’re the ones that seem to cause Australia most problems. Perhaps it will be James O’Connor.
In the heel of the hunt though, Ireland have been hit even harder by injuries, with 14 who have played Test rugby this season ruled out for one reason or another. As most of the damage has been wreaked up front, and primarily in the back five, the net effect has been to leave Donncha O’Callaghan surrounded by seven forwards who have just 24 Test starts to their names, while the four on the bench have two between them.
What’s more, Ireland have been exposed to more of a higher tempo, ball-in-hand game with which Australia are further down the road with. By contrast too, Ireland’s counter-attacking game is also under-developed. In light of all this, it would be a phenomenal achievement to register a first win in 24 attempts and 31 years since Ireland last beat a Tri-Nations side in the Southern Hemisphere.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand).
Betting(Paddy Power): 2/9 Australia, 25/1 Draw, 3/1 Ireland. Handicap odds (Ireland + 10 pts) 10/11 Australia, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: Australia to win.
