If backing the likely favourite Graphic Equaliser in today's Ladbroke Hurdle, punters may be advised to close their eyes and just hope for the best. All horse races to an extent demand the same blind faith but possibly none more so than this.

Racing's overall statistics tell us that on average, a third of favourites win. Those same statistics also tell us that in terms of making money, the Ladbroke is a cow.

Not since Barnbrook Again won the successor to the Sweeps Hurdle in 1987 has a favourite won it and Barnbrook Again, as a horse who went on to finish third in the Champion Hurdle and win two Champion Chases, was pretty exceptional anyway. Where now are Fragrant Dawn, Satin Love or Wonder Man, horses that seemed so obvious beforehand. Still running could be the disgruntled punter's reply.

Not that there haven't been a few touches along the way. The world and its mother seemed to know of The Illiad but even then he wasn't favourite. Neither was Roark, nor Atone, nor . . .

These are the horses that the bookmakers point to when the phrase bookmakers benefit is flung at the race, none more so than Ladbrokes spokesman Mike Dillon.

"The Illiad was backed down from 33 to 1, Roark from 8 to 1 on the day," Dillon protests but even he has to admit that some results have been "a bit fortuitous."

Explaining why this has been the case is less easy and explaining why the race continues to be so popular with punters in the face of so much aggravation is even more difficult.

The Ladbroke was the sponsors 12th biggest betting jump race last year in terms of turnover, a performance that Dillon describes as "staggering considering it's a foreign race."

This time round, especially after the defection of Commanche Court, Graphic Equaliser is the horse the public have latched on to and Dillon forecasts him starting a 4 to 1 clear favourite. In the past, that has been the kiss of death for a horse's chances but the man responsible for guiding Graphic Equaliser through the minefield is not perturbed.

"It's been a disaster in the past being favourite and it got me last year," grins Conor O'Dwyer but he explains: "People talk about jockeys being under pressure riding a favourite but once a jockey is out there, it doesn't even enter his head. Statistics can say whatever you want them to say anyway."

Too true but even so it's hard to argue with the figures this time. The Ladbroke is a favourite backers graveyard but there doesn't seem to be anything outstandingly different about the race to make it so.

"The only difference is that the track is very tight with the rails pushed in for the ground. That can make it a very rough race to ride in and there are usually problems from the third last to the straight with the mediocre horses coming back on top of you and everyone scrambling for position," O'Dwyer says.

The added complication this time is the very soft ground which could turn an already difficult race into a slog. However, Graphic Equaliser could be the sort of favourite to handle that.

"Hopefully there will be some kind of sense in the pace we set but I asked David Evans, who used to ride Graphic Equaliser, about the ground and he said as long as it's not gluey it shouldn't be a problem," O'Dwyer adds.

Nevertheless, neither O'Dwyer or Dillon can narrow this race down to one horse.

"Sharpical is a very big tip in England," says the bookmaker. "Arctic Weather is a fixture and I can see him running well and also Top Cees who will love the ground," he adds.

Significantly Top Cees is the one that the favourite's rider also pinpoints as a likely threat. "He's a real good flat horse who will stay and love the ground. I see he has been backed and he could be one of the more sneaky ones," considers O'Dwyer.