With the return to European affairs the next couple of weekends are likely to define some clubs' seasons, GERRY THORNLEYreports
AND SO to the meat of the season. As a prelude to the forthcoming Six Nations, the next couple of make-or-break, concluding weekends to the pool stages of the Heineken Cup take some beating.
Aside from providing the usual complications and dramatics next weekend, they are also likely to define some clubs’ seasons. In the cup, it’s all about stayin’ alive beyond January and thus, the Six Nations as well.
The return to European matters finds three Irish provinces leading their pools and thus never better placed to provide three Heineken Cup quarter-finalists for the first time. Munster are the only team with four wins from four – and all of them by six points or less – while Leinster are the only other unbeaten side.
Both can secure quarter-final spots this weekend and both will also be mindful of the need to maximise their strong positions by securing lucrative and advantageous home quarter-finals, which also remain well within their compass.
However, while Ulster lead the way in a predictably titanic three-way tussle with Leicester and Clermont, the hard work is still to come, with Friday night’s rendezvous at Ravenhill the first of what amount to quasi knock-out matches over the next couple of weekends before their daunting trek to the Auvergne on Saturday week.
Furthermore, Ulster may yet conceivably need a couple of wins to progress, as since the current bonus points’ format was introduced, only two of the 16 teams to qualify as one of the best runners-up did so with less than 20 points.
And the two that bucked the trend, Leicester in 2004-05 and Northampton in 2009-10, advanced with 19 points.
Another pointer towards the last eight is that no team has ever reached the quarter-finals without winning at least four of their pool games, which would limit those still in contention to 14, and that’s probably pushing things. For teams such as the Scarlets and Northampton (who meet in Llanelli), Glasgow, Ulster, Leicester and Biarritz, this weekend probably represents a point of no return.
Toulouse are hitting an ominously rich vein of form as they host Connacht on Saturday, although Eric Elwood’s hard-working if injury ravaged team will have the support of at least 700 travelling fans to the pink city for their nothing-to-lose encounter. The tournament could not throw up a bigger David v Goliath clash, in terms of finance and history, than this fixture.
The former (four-time) winners are to be found leading their group as many of the usual suspects rise to the top, although they are being hard-chased by Conor O’Shea’s Harlequins, while Mark McCall’s Saracens and Michael Bradley’s Edinburgh lead the other pools. All are well placed to advance.
In addition to the six pool winners and the two best pool runners-up, who will extend their Heineken Cup adventure into the knock-out stages, for the third season the next three best pool runners-up will join the five Amlin Challenge Cup Pool winners in that tournament’s quarter-finals.
Qualification pointers
Since bonus points were introduced no club has qualified as a Pool winner on fewer than 17 points. Toulon topped Pool 3 with 17 points in 2010/11.
No club has qualified as one of the best runners-up on fewer than four wins.
Since bonus points were introduced no club has qualified as one of the best runners-up on fewer than 19 points. Leicester in 2004/05 and Northampton in 2009/10 qualified as one of the best runners-up on 19 points.
