The coach could rely on experience and those returning from injury for the squad, writes GERRY THORNLEY

The big barstool debate of the season has begun in earnest, namely the composition of a prospective Lions’ squad/Test team for the first Test against the Wallabies on June 22nd in Suncorp Stadium. It’s all a bit of fun, from which no one is immune, not even Warren Gatland and his coaching staff, although, of course, theirs is the only selection that matters.

But even Gatland concedes they’ll draw up provisional squads in the light of the autumn internationals which conclude today when Wales and England host Australia and New Zealand. They will go through that process again before, during and after the Six Nations. And you can be sure that, no less than the rest of us, their provisional squads will change each time as well.

Even then the squad will be subject to the vagaries of injuries and form, both collective and individual, as some candidates may well sink or rise on the back of their team’s form.

The Six Nations will do more than anything to cement places, but even then, the concluding stages of the Heineken Cup and domestic championships will have a bearing. After all, would eight Munster men have been chosen in the original squad four years ago had it not come on the back of them thrashing the Ospreys 43-9 in the quarter-finals over a week beforehand? From little acorns and all that.

One win in eight games

The performances of the Home Union countries against their southern hemisphere counterparts wouldn’t appear to inspire confidence, not least as the injury-ravaged Wallabies are sure to have a host of key men back and thus be in better shape come June. But Gatland was not especially surprised or perturbed by the past month, which thus far has seen just one win for the Home Union countries in eight games at home to teams from the Rugby Championship, namely Ireland’s last week.

“I think when you reflect back on the autumn you can see that from the Championship those teams have been together for a number of weeks. They’ve probably come in a little bit sharper and are a little bit better prepared, and having played at an intensity week in and week out, that it’s taken some of the Home Unions a little bit of time to get up to speed with really. So I’m not surprised by that really.”

Casting his eye across the candidates, Gatland said: “In some areas I think there is some real strength. There’s a few injuries, but I think there is potentially a very strong secondrow, in the backrow there’s a lot of competition, in the midfield and back three I think there’s some real options there, and some players playing with some form. We’re still lacking a lot of strength in depth in certain areas if we do pick up injuries, or whatever, but I think there are some potentially real strengths in the Lions’ squad as well.”

As revealing were the areas he didn’t highlight as being perceived strengths, such as frontrow and half-back. Tellingly too, when Gatland was asked which Home Union players would make a World XV from 2012, he struggled to name one, as would most. (Cian Healy might be the only one who would.)

With the Heineken Cup final on May 18th and the finals of both the Rabo Pro 12 and Premiership on May 25th, Gatland forsees his squad having little or no time together on the training ground before flying out to Hong Kong for the first warm-up game against the Barbarians a week later, on June 3rd.

Hence he has repeatedly stated that the opening three games will be used to ensure every squad member has at least one start, and that they will not be “getting too hung-up” on the results of the warm-up games before the first Test.

Further movement

It is in those key weeks where there will be further movement within the squad toward Test starting spots.

Only 15 of the 35 can start that first Test, with just 23 of the 35 involved in the match-day squad. While naming the first 24 or 25 should not be too hard he admitted, Gatland recalls from three years ago that coming up with the final ten or so is the tricky part, and as important in their selection will be their character and willingness to be a good squadie. Personalities who might be inclined to “throw their toys out of the pram” need not apply.

Nothing encapsulates the changing fortunes of would-be Lions than the prospective candidates for the captaincy, and in particular Sam Warburton. He would have been favourite to lead the Lions after the World Cup and Wales’ Grand Slam success last season. But reflecting Wales’ slump from champs to chumps, he has been struggling for form and was even dropped by Wales for the game against Samoa.

Indeed, Gatland admitted that “maybe a couple of lines” could be drawn through a few of the prospective Welsh Lions who needed to “re-establish themselves”. Ireland have, of course, just negotiated an autumn window without two former Lions captains and the last two ERC European Players of the Year, one of whom was a Test star in South Africa three years ago. Stephen Ferris would have starred on that tour but for injury while Rory Best has also been missing. Six or seven of the Welsh contenders are among their dozen players ruled out today.

So perhaps the Lions might yet reap the benefits from some stellar names returning to the fray with a truncated rather than exhausting season behind them. With the Lions management and Gatland conscious of the need for continuity in the coaching department, similarly if there’s a close call in the squad then playing experience of three years ago will count.

The men likely to make the Lions team

Fullback (3)

Rob Kearney (Ireland)
Leigh Halfpenny (Wales)
Ben Foden (England)

If Kearney regains his fitness and form then, with his experience of '09 in South Africa, he goes, as does Halfpenny (not least for his versatility and goalkicking). But Ben Foden, like Kearney, is class.

Wing (4)

George North (Wales)
Tommy Bowe (Ireland)
Alex Cuthbert (Wales)
Tim Visser (Scotland)

Chris Ashton could yet be hard to ignore, and either Charlie Sharples or James Simpson-Daniel might yet be hard to resist, while there could be an Irish bolter yet in Simon Zebo or Craig Gilroy.

Centre (4)

Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland)
Jonathan Davies (Wales)
Jamie Roberts (Wales)
Brad Barritt (England)

O'Driscoll is pencilled in on the premise that Gatland, who gave him his debut and worked with him again three years ago, will assuredly be doing so as well. Roberts needs to regain some form, Manu Tuilagi would be irresistible if he ever develops a creative game, but if there's a centre-wing option, Scott Williams always steps in seamlessly for Wales.

Outhalf (3)

Jonathan Sexton (Ireland)
Jonny Wilkinson (England)
Owen Farrell (England)

With a limit on numbers, there seems sure to be a slot for a goalkicking outhalf cum centre ala James Hook in '09, but this time that might be filled by Farrell. Confidence at a low ebb and the primary target of a critical Welsh social media, Rhys Priestland will need to be rebuilt. Wilkinson runs the risk of attracting a media circus, but if he maintains his form with Toulon he may be impossible to resist. A certain Cork man can't be ruled out entirely either.

Scrumhalf (3)

Ben Youngs (England)
Mike Phillips (Wales)
Conor Murray (Ireland)

Danny Care could yet edge out the classy Youngs (two feisty diminutive English scrumhalves might be one too many) and there's a long line of would-be contenders, Tavis Knoyle, Chris Cusiter etc, with Phillips picked more on past achievements than a continually faltering career, and Murray on the promise now coming to fruition again.

Prop (5)

Cian Healy (Ireland)
Alex Corbisiero (England)
Adam Jones (Wales)
Dan Cole (England)
Paul James (Wales)

James might go as a prop who can pack down on both sides, while Gethin Jenkins and his Toulon team-mate Andrew Sheridan could miss out in part due to French club commitments, leaving room for Corbisiero.

Hookers (3)

Dylan Hartley (England)
Richardt Strauss (Ireland)
Richard Hibbard (Wales)

Hartley is not picked for his cuddly personality, obviously, and in a particularly fluid position, two Irish hookers in Strauss and Rory Best is not beyond the bounds, with Tom Youngs another strong candidate.

Lock (4)

Luke Charteris (Wales)
Alun-Wyn Jones (Wales)
Courtney Lawes (England)
Richie Gray (Scotland).

If Donnacha Ryan's career graph keeps on the upward incline of the last year he'll be hard to resist, though it's perhaps hard to see no English lock, and Geoff Parling is another strong contender. Paul O'Connell is omitted on the premise that he has ruled himself out, but if back to his best come June he'll assuredly go.

Flanker (5)

Sam Warburton (Wales)
Justin Tipuric (Wales)
Seán O'Brien (Ireland)
Tom Wood (England)
Stephen Ferris (Ireland)

The most competitive area by far, though with injury clouds or form issues hanging over a host of them. Ferris is picked on trust in that injury-prone body but, again, if at his best, could not be resisted. Dan Lydiate, out till March/April, won't have time on his side, while Tom Croft could re-emerge in the New Year, Chris Robshaw could undoubtedly force his way in and a lock/backrow utility bolter could be Aaron Shingler. Ross Rennie is one of Scotland's stronger contenders.

No Eight (2)

Jamie Heaslip (Ireland)
Ben Morgan (England)

Morgan could add more to his game, but they'll want one big ball-carrying number eight. Like Scotland, David Denton flatters to deceive, and Toby Faletau is but a shadow of the World Cup and Slam star.

Possible First Test team:Kearney; Bowe, Davies, Roberts, Cuthbert; Sexton, Youngs; Healy, Hartley, A Jones; Gray, A-W Jones; O'Brien, Warburton (capt), Heaslip. Replacements:Corbisiero, Strauss, Cole, Lawes,
Ferris, Phillips, Farrell, Halfpenny.

On the road 2013 tour fixtures

Saturday, June 1st

Barbarians v Lions
Hong Kong Stadium

Wednesday June 5th

Western Force v Lions
Patersons Stadium

Saturday, June 8th

Queensland Reds v Lions
Suncorp Stadium

Tuesday, June 11th

Comb NSW-Queensland Country v Lions
Hunter Stadium

Saturday, June 15th

NSW Waratahs v Lions
Sydney Football Stadium

Tuesday, June 18th

ACT Brumbies v Lions
Canberra Stadium

Saturday, June 22nd

Australia v Lions
Suncorp Stadium

Tuesday, June 25th

Melbourne Rebels v Lions
AAMI Stadium

Saturday, June 29th

Australia v Lions
Etihad Stadium

Saturday, July 6th

Australia v Lions
Sydney