Wales v New Zealand:NOT SINCE their then team manager Geoff Evans declared in 1995 that Wales were bigger, better, faster and fitter than New Zealand have the men in red gone into a match against the All Blacks so aggressively bullish despite decades of failure in the fixture.

Evans learned to his cost that provoking the All Blacks verbally was the equivalent of disturbing a wasps’ nest with a baseball bat and Wales suffered multiple stings as they crashed 34-9 in Johannesburg. They have opted for a different line of attack this week, not so much talking themselves up as running down the opposition, going on about a fading aura and vulnerability.

Whereas Evans was letting the excitement of a World Cup campaign get to him – Wales had, after all, been whitewashed in that year’s Five Nations and sacked their coach six weeks before leaving for South Africa – current coach Warren Gatland has been calculatingly provocative, and not just because he is a Kiwi.

The gap between Wales and New Zealand has for most of the last 30 years been wider than the Cook Strait, but the All Blacks have been beaten four times this year and they have lacked their customary fluency, not even putting Italy to flight, hampered by a malfunctioning lineout that today will have to cope with the 6ft 9in Luke Charteris.

Gatland is also conscious Wales have not sustained success since the 1970s. By letting his players know there will be no comfort in defeat tonight and that they have to be aspirational, he is applying a New Zealand approach to a more fickle country.

“The challenge for me as a coach is to make the players believe that they can beat the All Blacks,” he said. “That is why we are playing the best teams in the world regularly in the build-up to the next World Cup. Thinking the All Blacks had an aura about them was part of the fear factor.”

New Zealand outhalf Daniel Carter, who has hardly trained this week because of a calf injury, took part in the captain’s run at the ground yesterday, although it turned out to be more of a stroll, and practised kicking.

“He has said all week he will be fine and I expect him to play,” said New Zealand captain Richie McCaw. “He better not be lying.”

Gatland is convinced Carter will not play, which may be wishful thinking. New Zealand rely heavily on their outhalf and Wales will have to make do without three players pivotal under Gatland: fullback Lee Byrne, scrumhalf Mike Phillips and the prop Adam Jones.

If Wales have the advantage in the lineout, New Zealand will look to put pressure on untried tighthead Paul James. McCaw and Martyn Williams will battle for ball on the floor, but McCaw was too often on his own in the Tri-Nations. Ma’a Nonu will have seismic collisions with Jamie Roberts and Carter will test the positioning of James Hook at fullback.

There will be a surfeit of kicking, but both sides are opportunistic and what has marked out the All Blacks from Wales in recent years has been the composure to turn pressure into tries and do their talking on the field.

And it will be interesting to see how Wales captain Ryan Jones will perform after a disappointing end to last season and a short, farcical call-up to the Lions tour.

His form for the Ospreys this year has been excellent, and Gatland denies there is any difficulty with the player he was happy to name as captain.

And former Wales captain and forwards coach at the Ospreys, Jonathan Humphreys

PAUL REES , is adamant the player will only get better now he has returned to the backrow. “Ryan is a person who all his career has shown that he reacts well under pressure,” he says. “It is one of the qualities that makes him a natural captain. If Wales are to end their drought against New Zealand, Ryan will be the one taking them to the well.” Guardian Service