France stand on the threshold of history. They are seeking an unprecedented third successive Grand Slam and a record 10th consecutive championship victory, a reasonable return for a team regarded as predictable only for its unpredictability.
A nation expects. The Stade de France will today host 80,500 clamorous spectators, a record attendance for a rugby match in France and a bigger gate even than for last summer's World Cup football final. "We are surprised," said the president of the French Rugby Federation, Bernard Lapasset. "We have sold 5,000 more tickets than we did for England a year ago."
Wales are expected to be dismissed with the disdain France showed at Wembley last year when they won 51-0 with embarrassing ease, but they were the last team to beat France in the championship. The half-backs Robert Howley and Neil Jenkins are the only Welsh survivors from that day in Cardiff three years ago and it is 24 years since Wales last won in Paris.
Their best hope would appear to lie, as it did two years ago when only ill-fortune denied them, with French over-confidence. In 1997, France did not bother playing for position against Wales: it was the start of Pierre Villepreux's reign as the assistant coach to Jean-Claude Skrela and he insisted on a liberated approach, running from everywhere.
As the World Cup looms, Villepreux has become more pragmatic. The artistry he has encouraged is balanced with science. He has made a detailed study of the video of France's opening match in Dublin last month and has carefully analysed Wales's opening two matches. Nothing is being left to chance.
"It was not a typically French performance in Dublin," he said. "The conditions were against us: it was cold and wet, the wind swirled around the ground and Ireland were confident after the success of Ulster in the European Cup. We had to be patient and defend with resolution. We made almost twice as many tackles as the Irish and we only executed two three-quarter moves, but we held our nerve to win.
"Perhaps a couple of years ago we would not have been as disciplined or as focused. We still want to live up to an ideal, but different opponents present different problems and you have to be able to deal with them. What we have become is a team in the full sense of the world, one which is standing on the threshold of greatness."
Wales hardly have a leg to stand on after talking themselves up before the start of the championship, only to slip to defeats against Scotland and Ireland. This is their fifth match under the coach Graham Henry and he is already on his third loose-head prop, hooker and tight-head.
If Villepreux has started to pay considerable attention to opponents, Henry is still concentrating on getting Wales to play as he wants them to. "I have not seen much of France," he said. "I know they are a very good side and that Wales have not won in Paris for a few years, but for us to compare our record against theirs is to concentrate on the negative. . . I think we have had enough of nightmares." Henry is at the stage Villepreux was two years ago, concentrating more on the manner of performances rather than on results. However, to add to his woes, he has now lost his replacement centre, Allan Bateman, who injured a calf muscle in training yesterday morning. He is replaced by Cardiff's Gareth Thomas.
England are the next championship opponents for both France and Wales, but if the French are feeling grand about another slam, Wales are in danger of finishing the decade as they started it: with a whitewash.
Scotland coach Jim Telfer yesterday sought to diffuse the increased expectation surrounding his Five Nations charges as they attempt to continue their forward momentum with victory over Italy in a `friendly' at Murrayfield today.
The memory of a demoralising 25-21 defeat in Treviso last January clearly still burns brightly in Scottish minds and he is conscious of the debilitating effect another surprise defeat could have on their next Five Nations encounter with Ireland in a fortnight.
