THE Government believes that it can remain in power until January 1998. It won't, of course, because no one wants a Christmas campaign but the idea is being floated around in high circles to destabilise the Opposition, which expects an election between February and June next year and hopes to peak during that period. It also serves to indicate that to stay in power over the summer recess doesn't mean the Coalition will be going to the wire, with all the inherent dangers that creates.

The January option was mentioned by the Minister for Justice Nora Owen on RTE's Questions and Answers last Monday. Fellow guest FE leader Bertie Ahern looked slightly alarmed at the prospect but is the Minister and those of similar view correct? Well sort of.

Section 33 of the Electoral Act 1992 says "the same Dail shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting". So it's not five years from the dissolution of the previous Dail, the general election or the formation of the Government.

The last general election was on November 25th 1992 and the current 27th Dail, which saw a change of government mid-term, first met on December 14th that year. So the Dail could go to December 14th, 1997 plus 30 days before polling.

Meanwhile, as election speculation continues, the latest phrase in political circles is "exclusion zone" as in "creation of". The PDs have ruled out coalition with Labour and vice versa; DL won't have FE; the PDs and DL are mutually exclusive. Only FF and FG are open to all. Some canny political pundits are saying that without realising it, the smaller parties are limiting their options unnecessarily. A four-party coalition now seems impossible. Of course, what matters is the numbers and when they add up, anyone will do a deal with anyone. Wait and see.