The biggest surprise about this Ulster final is the opposition facing Armagh. Before the championship started there was a widespread consensus that Armagh deserved sole exception from the general belief that Ulster football was going through a period of regression almost as startling as its initial rise.

Armagh have fulfilled the predictions: they beat Donegal and Derry on their way to the final from a theoretically more difficult side of the draw.

Thing was, Tyrone were seen as sure to be there to meet them. Down's emphatic ending of their interest in the championship has disturbed the anticipated order. Down, after all, were supposed to be a county spent of ambition and ability and their general sharpness in the semi-final served as a wakeup call.

Assessments have varied as to the significance of that mauling of Tyrone. There is an argument that, when up by six points late in the first half, Tyrone suffered an inexplicable collapse. But Down simply owned the ball. They are far from the finished product - their backs have yet to be tested and they were utterly flat for the first half hour against Tyrone - but they had a balanced look and, once they clicked, their forwards shimmered with imagination and ran the Tyrone backs ragged.

Armagh's victories, against Donegal after a replay and over Derry, seemed inspired by a burning fear of losing. For all their attacking ability they have kicked scores in spurts.

The key to their unconvincing passage through the first round was their ability to carve out killer goals. Their forwards rattled off a series of points on the resultant shot of adrenalin. When on song, their attacking game is breathtaking, but it remains unpredictable.

What Armagh do have is a solid base. Their half-back line is exemplary, with Kieran McGeeney emerging as the team's spiritual leader and most effective player while Kieran Hughes and, in particular, Andrew McCann break forward at every opportunity. Down's ability to curtail this trio will be central to the result.

Diarmuid Marsden and Cathal O'Rourke have been at the heart of all Armagh's finest moments this summer. Their presence in the full-forward line, along with marksman Oisin McConville gives that line a particularly venomous look.

Chances are Marsden will take Sean Ward roving around the field if the attack doesn't ignite immediately. That duel promises one of the livelier cameos of the afternoon.

Much speculation has been aired about Ger Reid's vulnerability at full back, but a solid hour on the buzzing Ciaran McCabe will cement his reputation.

Armagh have the edge at midfield, but Ross Carr, Micheal Magill and Shane Mulholland have the presence to correct the imbalance. For Armagh, neutralising Mulholland is the key to damming Down's creativity. In 1990, Armagh lost an Ulster final to Donegal by a point. They have, through ill luck mostly, failed to reach this stage since. Still, they have a tremendous amount riding on this match.

The emotional slant to their victories have helped them engineer a sense of unstoppable momentum. But they are facing a county to which Ulster championships have almost become a birthright.

The links to the 1994 side, when Down last won the All-Ireland, are tenuous but once again Pete McGrath seems to be moulding a team in that image. If the defence holds firm, Down have the verve to plunder silver again.