Don't be fooled, the Welsh – and Warren Gatland – have plenty to fight for, writes GERRY THORNLEY

JACK KYLE and those heroes still around from 1948 might have been half-hoping Scotland beat Ireland last week. Alternatively, they may well have resolved to draw the curtains, unplug or turn off their phones, ignore the front door and hide under their bed covers for the rest of the week, and pray to the almighty that Ireland finally do emulate their 61-year-old achievement next Saturday. Then Brian O’Driscoll and the current lot can take the calls.

Those looking to draw positive auguries from ’48 can point to the sequence with which the Ireland’s one and only Grand Slammers reached the Holy Grail. Conveniently overlooking Italy, in order, France and England were beaten (away, admittedly) and Scotland at home before the Welsh came calling to Ravenhill.

In truth, Kyle and co haven’t been unduly bothered for comparisons in weeks such as this over the intervening period, for only four times in the last six decades have Ireland come to the last game with the chance of a Slam. Alas, prophets of doom can point to the exact same sequence in 1951 and 1969, Ireland beating France, England and Scotland again in that order before arriving, ominously, in Cardiff and drawing 3-3, when Kyle was still captain, and losing 24-11 under the captaincy of Tom Kiernan.

That, infamously, was the day Brian Price floored Noel Murphy and should have been sent off but wasn’t. Admittedly that was a good Welsh team and it was at the start of a golden era in the valleys.

In 1982, Ireland travelled to Paris having won the Triple Crown, but, having been idle in round four, hadn’t played for four weeks when arriving in the Parc des Princes. The edge had gone off their game. The French were pointless and bottom of the table, yet completely rebuilt their pack, tore into Ireland from the start and won 22-9.

Finally, of more recent vintage, in 2003 Ireland met England in a Grand Slam, winner-takes-all shoot-out at Lansdowne Road, and as the 42-6 outcome ably demonstrated, nothing steels a side’s resolve than having had to suffer through agonising near-misses. Those previous times when England were denied the Slam, most notably by Scotland in Edinburgh and Wales in Wembley, helped harden them into the Slam and World Cup winners of that year.

There are many fascinating aspects leading up to Saturday’s grand finale and its outcome, not least today’s selections, the levels of desire and hunger each side take into the game and the tactics they employ.

There also seems to be a feeling about, not least on the RTÉ panel, that Wales’ defeat in Paris and the ensuing lack of another Grand Slam to aim for means Ireland will have more desire. Eh sorry, not having that one.

Wales have a Triple Crown and, potentially, a championship to aim for. But perhaps more than that, Warren Gatland and his staff merely have to accumulate all the headlines and articles this week addressing Ireland’s tilt at a Grand Slam they won last year, in their own back yard. That would be motivation enough. Think of France in ’82, Wales against England at Wembley and Scott Gibbs’ last-ditch try in 1999 and the Scots aqua-planning their way to victory over England at Murrayfield a year later.

Most of all, perhaps, recall Ireland in 2001, with supposedly less to play for, denied England. And Gatland coached Ireland that day. Nope, there’ll be no lack of desire on either side come 5.30pm on Saturday.

Helpfully, Ireland have lost only once in Cardiff since the last championship success of 1985, and more pertinently, Munster won their two Heineken Cups in the Millennium Stadium.

Those are plenty of positive memories and energy to be taking from an away venue into a game of this enormity and of course, Munster also won the 2002-03 Celtic League there when beating Neath in the final.

The way Gordon D’Arcy grew into Saturday’s game and eked out extra yards in contact as it wore on strengthens the argument for retaining him. Jamie Heaslip will most likely start again at number eight, but the calls at hooker and scrumhalf are marginal.

Jerry Flannery remains the more dynamic player and this looks like one for that extra bit of Munster dog, though arguably the dynamic works better when Flannery comes on for Rory Best.

Similarly, though Tomás O’Leary demonstrated his growing maturity in the last quarter against the Scots, the same is true when Stringer comes on after the game has loosened up a little.

Ireland definitely play at a higher tempo with Stringer’s service, and this looks like one for more experience, though the selectors may weigh this against the 6ft 3in, 16st7 frame of Mike Phillips and go with the more physical O’Leary.

This would be ironic, as Phillips has mainly been a linkman since returning from knee surgery and a nine-month absence in January, and Dwayne Peel increasingly looks a loss.

Gatland seems sure to recall Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones and Ian Gough to his front five, and maybe Matthew Rees as well, along with Martyn Williams and Ryan Jones to his backrow – the question being whether to demote Jonathan Thomas or Andy Powell, with Ryan Jones reverting to number eight.

Stephen Jones and Tom Shanklin look sure to be recalled as well, here the question being whether to partner the latter with the mutinous and sulking Gavin Henson or the suddenly subdued Jamie Roberts.

With Martyn Williams back in harness to link the forward and back play, Wales will look to play with more continuity than Ireland, whose linkplay between backs and forwards hasn’t been so obvious. This game might therefore seem like a different sport to the last two, not that how Ireland get there matters much.

What will be interesting is how Ireland approach the game and what gives them the best opportunity for winning. They played to their strengths in gradually suffocating and subduing England and Scotland, but one imagines they’ll have to mix their game a little more next Saturday.

After all, as the opener against France showed, they have the capacity to strike through O’Driscoll and their outside three.

You’d imagine Ireland may have to score a couple of tries or more to emulate the boys of ’48 too.

gthornley@irishtimes.com