It was always likely that Rule 21 would end up like this - being prised from the grip of reluctant cross-border counties. The view that one fine day, everyone would be happy to see the provision abandoned was unrealistic.

Three years ago in the euphoria of the Belfast Agreement and its referendums, the GAA accepted the line that "the time is not right".

Now with a new police force established in Northern Ireland and despite the continuing opposition of some members, the time looks as if it is at last right.

The question of the timing of president Seβn McCague's special congress this afternoon in the Citywest Hotel, Dublin, has arisen. Why now? Admittedly dispatch of the rule is better late than never but in terms of the overall political situation, deletion will add little to it at this stage.

The time for a meaningful gesture towards the peace process has long passed and the only potential the issue still retains is a negative one.

It would be calamitous if for some reason the rule didn't go this afternoon. Because, aside from the overall situation, the central reality of the policing issue in Northern Ireland has to be considered. This practicality has been at the heart of McCague's move on Rule 21.

In 1998 when Joe McDonagh tried to bury the provision in one fell swoop at congress by raising standing orders, he was gambling on a spirit of generosity existing at the time. He was mistaken and in retrospect must have known that as soon as the compromise of holding a special congress emerged, opponents of change would regroup and fight their corner.

Although deletion wasn't in the end voted on that day, it is virtually certain that opposition to the measure would have been sufficient to prevent it getting a two-thirds majority. At the time with Patten only being set up, the lack of generosity could be explained by caution.

Now, however, with the Police Service of Northern Ireland established and recruitment under way, abolition of Rule 21 has become a practical matter.

If the main sporting organisation of potential nationalist recruits deters entry to the PSNI it has no chance of becoming a representative policing body. This level of interference with members' career prospects was going to be intolerable. These and other practicalities prompted McCague to make his move.

An Ulsterman from Monaghan, McCague had supported Rule 21 as a salve for the bruised sensibilities of GAA members in Northern Ireland.

Joe McDonagh's attempt to remove the rule was a necessary part of the process (few reforms happen at the first time of asking) but his influence in Ulster wasn't as strong as his successor's.

Suggestions that Governmental influence played a role in this are bunkum. It is possible that the British prime minister Tony Blair may have sometimes wondered why an organisation in receipt of such state largesse was so intractable on a matter of public policy. However, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern would be well aware that the GAA would not respond well to specific pressure.

Such a scenario undervalues McCague's determination that when the time came, the rule would have to go.

Eighteen months ago before taking office he accepted that once recruitment for the new police force began, the GAA would be in a dilemma.

Two years ago, while president-elect, he told the Monaghan convention that the association would "have to have the courage to take the big decision".

Expanding on the theme some days later he said: "I'm talking about all our membership but people who are affected by the rule - and it really has no relevance in somewhere like south Carlow - must assist those whose support they have enlisted when the time comes for it to go."

This assistance is now requested at a time when the cross-border counties don't really accept that that time has come. But if McCague hasn't persuaded those counties to change their minds he does appear to have secured acceptance of the right of others to give voice to their opinions and no longer defer to the northern bloc.

Practical issues such as the impact of human rights obligations and the implications of equality legislation have begun to cause concern in the south.

Unease at being politically manipulated by Sinn FΘin's anxiety at being isolated on policing has been another of the factors behind the GAA's loss of patience with foot-dragging on the need for repeal.

On Thursday night, everything fell into place with Down opting to vote for change and as a result eased the concerns of those uncomfortable about opposing a cross-border consensus.

This result left the Ulster vote evenly divided 4 to 5 against deletion rather than in monolithic support of the status quo, as was the case three years ago.

With Rule 21 now entering its final hours McCague's thoughts will already be turning to how best to manage the radically changed world of the GAA in Northern Ireland.