THE AIB All-Ireland club final frequently lends itself to intrigue. There are so many variables when assessing the form of teams, and when, like this afternoon's football, two new sides reach the final, the lack of any points of comparison makes forecasting even more hazardous than usual.

Crossmaglen Rangers have survived a stringently testing campaign. Late and hard-fought victories have been hacked out of teams with solid All-Ireland pedigree: Burren, Bellaghy and last year's champions Laune Rangers.

If the tightness of the margins has seldom varied, neither has the style of football. Big, athletic and young, Crossmaglen have crowded midfield by bringing back 6 ft 6 in corner forward Colm O'Neill and withdrawing most of their forwards to leave Jim McConville and Cathal Short isolated on the inside.

According to manager Joe Kernan, the emphasis is on moving the ball quickly and safely out from defence and then getting into their front-runners as quickly as possible. They are also an adaptable team whose improvised short game, into a howling wind in Portlaoise during the first half of their semifinal, was slick and assured, if not always finished with the same aplomb.

Knockmore, on the other hand, produced a sensational result in their semi-final, but maybe it was only familiarity that made Eire Og favourites going into the match. The suspicion lingers that the result tells us more about the Carlow team after five hard seasons chasing the club title than it does about the Mayo club's guaranteed capacity.

If this was a simple choice between a fit, rugged and mentally tough young side and a team with brilliant forwards, the verdict would tend Knockmore's way on the basis that a top-class attack is the most valuable asset a team can have, regardless of other failings.

The match isn't that easily reduced and the reservation remains that players like Padraig Brogan, Ray Dempsey, Kevin O'Neill and Declan Sweeney, who can mercilessly screw a retreating opposition, may find difficulties putting on the style in a more restrictive environment.

And midfield is likely to be restrictive. With O'Neill back, the size and footballing abilities of the McEntee brothers, John and Tony, and Anthony Cunningham so impressive in the semi-final, it's hard to see Kevin Staunton being quite as influential as he has been to date.

If the title is to go west for the first time, Knockmore will have to strike early and hope Crossmaglen wilt. If the match is tightly contested, the Ulster club's experience of and self-confidence in such situations will be decisive.

Given the unlikelihood of Crossmaglen disintegrating, all the evidence is that the trophy is going north for the first time in six years.