Cork Con favourites to regain crown

That was more like it

That was more like it. A sun-kissed Sunday afternoon at Castle Avenue, the adjoining cricket match giving Clontarf's meeting with Cork Constitution a true end-of-season atmosphere which was enhanced by the first al fresco postmatch gathering of the season on the balcony. Then just as conditions improve, we shut up shop for the summer, which always seems a pity, if not even a little daft.

The prevailing sense of anti-climax arising from the truncated Six Nations and Munster's European exit is palpable. Time was when the prospect of eight or nine clubs vying for topfour play-off places would have generated greater interest within Irish rugby. A common perception is that standards within the AIB League have declined, though this is primarily because the AIL has suffered from comparison with European fare. In truth, from a spectator's viewpoint, I think AIL rugby is better now than it's ever been. It's just that there's fewer spectators.

With a good deal more professional players involved, even at AIL level, fitness standards and skills levels ought to be higher. "It's been a pleasure to see the vast, vast improvement," observes Kevin Putt, who previously had played for Terenure in the 1990-91 season before returning as player-coach this season.

"The players I played with and against 10 years ago gave their hearts but they certainly weren't athletes. There are so many more good players around now. You can see there are some clever coaches around and there is some good man-management going on as well, like for example Shannon, who are clearly investing for the future. Irish rugby seems to have taken to professionalism very well."

READ MORE

Putt also contends, like many, that there aren't enough quality senior players to justify a 16-team first division. Yet I wonder about this, for the fewer number of first division teams there are, so the percentage of clubs threatened by relegation must be higher, which in turn might lead to more pressurised, risk-free rugby.

The most significant result for the AIL in the last few weeks has been Munster's defeat to Stade Francais. Munster's progress to last season's European Cup final ultimately meant the four main Munster contestants were effectively sidelined for a month and then forced to play three games in eight days. None made the top four.

Current evidence perhaps of Munster's greater hunger, and curiously Leinster's apparently more hands-on approach toward their players, is that Munster's players are now making a greater effort to play for their clubs. They look set to dominate the play-offs once more later this month whereas yet again St Mary's are flying the Leinster flag on their own.

Galwegians coach John Kingston reckons 47 points is the threshold for top-four qualification, though such is the manic pursuit of bonus points at the end of the campaign that it could rise by a point or two.

TOP FOUR BATTLE

CORK CONSTITUTION (44 points): Odds: (Paddy Powers) 15/8. Remaining games: Old Crescent (away), DLSP (away), Ballymena (home). Comment: Best-placed of all to make the top four, and two wins will assuredly earn a home semi-final as well.

GALWEGIANS (42 pts): Odds: 6/1. Remaining games: Terenure (a), Buccaneers (h). Comment: Four defeats in six games may now necessitate two wins out of two. Ominously they have doubts over Eric Elwood and Willie Ruane this week, but they're still better placed than most.

YOUNG MUNSTER (38 pts): Odds: 5/1. Remaining games: Terenure (a), Garryowen (a), B/Harlequins (h). Comment: Hitting form at the right time. Crunch game against Garryowen but could conceivably afford to lose that and still make semi-finals.

BALLYMENA (37 pts): Odds: 8/1. Remaining games: Shannon (h), Dungannon (a), Cork Con (a). Comment: Form has dipped and they have a brutal run-in. Earlier slip-ups mean they'll have to win two and possibly all three to progress.

DUNGANNON (36 pts): Odds: 8/1. Remaining games: B/Harlequins (a), Ballymena (h), Garryowen (h). Comment: Gifted back line (25 tries in five games) has clicked with perfect timing. Best chance ever of making top four though will probably need three wins out of three. Relative lack of firepower up front could undermine their chances.

SHANNON (34 pts): Odds: 6/1. Remaining games: Ballymena (a), Lansdowne (a), Old Crescent (h). Comment: Probably require three more wins to make the cut and even then they could miss out.

ST MARY'S (33 pts): Odds: 4/1. Remaining games: Garryowen (h), Buccaneers (a), Old Crescent (a), Terenure (h). Comment: Suffering for lack of bonus points and hence may well need to win all four remaining games to reach play-offs. Traditionally strong finishers, and have last year's experience to lean on, but it's a tall enough order.

GARRYOWEN (30 pts): Odds: 16/1. Remaining games: St Mary's (a), Young Munster (h), Buccaneers (h), Dungannon (a). Comment: Also traditionally strong finishers, they'll need to win all four which is a big ask given three are play-off rivals.

BLACKROCK (31 pts): Odds: 25/1. Remaining games: Lansdowne (h), Clontarf (a). Comment: Even wins with bonus points won't be enough, hence the odds.

A top-four forecast would be Cork Con, Galwegians, Young Munster and Dungannon, with Con to regain their crown on the premise that, as was the case the season before last, they are the best all-round side in the country. And though Ronan O'Gara and the other Lions may miss the denouement, the sun won't shine on the AIL quite like this again for a while. So they may as well make hay.

gthornley@irish-times.ie

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times