ALLIANZ NFL:WITH ONE round of matches to go, many of the major questions in the National Football League have already been decided. One finalist has been identified in three of the four divisional deciders and four of the six relegation slots already filled.
The most impressive performers have been Munster champions and All-Ireland finalists Cork. After a strong campaign, which ends in a last fixture against fellow top-two side, Mayo, Conor Counihan’s team have qualified for the Division One final, scheduled for Croke Park on 25th April.
This is just 12 months on from having won the Division Two title against Monaghan. Likely opponents are Mayo, meaning that the counties would be facing each other twice in the space of a fortnight. That would make it Mayo’s second Division One final in four seasons, having lost to Donegal in 2007, in the first year of manager John O’Mahony’s current stint in charge.
The only other candidates for the final are Dublin, who would have to take two points from the last match against Tyrone in Omagh. That task looks more difficult now that the Ulster champions have won a couple of matches to give themselves a good chance of avoiding relegation.
Should Dublin win, however, and Cork defeat Mayo, it would be Pat Gilroy’s team who would advance, as they have won the divisional fixture between the counties.
The GAA’s reminder of the mechanisms for separating counties level on points – head to head meetings if there are two teams tied and points difference if more than two are on the same number of points – seems to have caught some teams by surprise despite it being in the rule book.
At the other end of the table, it’s still all to play for even if Derry would take a near-miracle to survive. Damian Cassidy’s team, which contested the past two NFL Division One finals and won the title in 2008, are two points adrift of three teams, two of which – Kerry and Monaghan – have beaten them this season.
Given that the latter are to play each other in the last round and Tyrone have the home match with Dublin, it is difficult to see how Derry can overtake two teams even if they manage to defeat Galway in the final round on 11th April.
Their scoring difference is poorer than all of the teams just above them on four points. Monaghan , are the most likely county to accompany Derry as Séamus McEnaney’s team have to travel to Kerry for their last match. They can survive, however, by beating Kerry or by Dublin defeating Tyrone.
It is likely that two Ulster counties will be relegated but certain that two more will take their place next season.
In an unusual configuration, the bottom three places in Division One and the top three places in Division Two are occupied by northern teams.
Down have secured promotion in James McCartan’s first year in charge, the second successive year that the county have risen a division in the NFL. Their opponents in the divisional final will be decided by whoever wins the Armagh-Donegal match on the last day. Should it end in a draw, Armagh will progress on scoring difference.
At the other end of the table, the relegated counties have already been decided with one series to go. For the second successive season Westmeath drop a division and will be joined by last year’s Division Three winners Tipperary who, despite a battling campaign, return to that section.
Division Two activity is mirrored in Division Three where an Ulster county has also secured promotion for the second successive year. Antrim, whose league displays last season were a precursor to a good championship in which they reached the provincial final for the first time in 39 years, have already qualified for the divisional final.
Liam Bradley’s team could potentially be accompanied by any of the other counties apart from the already-relegated Roscommon and Fermanagh. Wexford, currently second, entertain Antrim and will nail down the second place should they win. Any slip-up and Sligo, who are at home to bottom team Roscommon, will take advantage.
But should both Wexford and Sligo lose, there will be a free-for-all for the second promotion place. Cavan are well-positioned should they defeat Fermanagh. In that case there would be a pile-up – Wexford, Sligo, Cavan and the winners of Offaly-Louth – on eight points and Tom Carr’s side have the best scoring difference at present.
Relegation is a hugely disappointing outcome for Fermanagh. It means that in the space of three seasons Malachy O’Rourke’s team have slipped from the old, albeit expanded Division One all the way to the NFL basement. Roscommon were also a Division Two team two seasons ago.
Division Four is the most open of the four sections although primarily because there are two series left. Clare top the table but face matches against their two closest rivals, Waterford and Limerick. Promotion is between these three and Wicklow with Leitrim having an outside chance.
But Wicklow have played one more match than the others and Leitrim’s scoring difference almost certainly won’t be enough to take them into second spot even were Waterford to lose to Kilkenny, as would be required.
