THE resumption of the National League tomorrow marks the start of serious business in the world of football. Gradually, but inexorably, the season will gather momentum all the way through the regulation League matches to the playoffs, the knockout stages and finally into the provincial championships.

It is a time of the year when all things appear possible to teams with championship credentials and thoughts are already turning to which teams will be likely contenders this summer. For the sixth year, inter county managers have been polled on where they think the prizes are going in six and eight months' time.

Dublin's termination of Ulster custom in last year's All Ireland has had a marked effect on expectations for this year's championship. For the first time in five years, the northern province has commanded fewer votes than the rest of the country in this year's managers' survey.

All respondents were asked to leave their own county aside and predict who they thought would win their provincial title and the All Ireland.

Aside from the decline in northern stock - including the surprising omission of last year's runners up Tyrone - the poll is notable for a fairly low vote in, favour of the reigning champions who customarily attract the lions' share of the predictions at this time of the year. Despite having halted Ulster's domination, Dublin aren't seen as continuing beneficiaries of the newly open environment.

The champions receive four votes to retain the title although a majority of their Leinster neighbours feel that Dublin will record a fifth successive provincial win.

A most striking demonstration - of the state of flux in the game is the fact that 19 of the 20 managers who made predictions last year have changed their minds about who is most likely to win the All Ireland.

The biggest shift in perceptions concerns Cork. Billy Morgan's team didn't get a single vote last year to win the All Ireland but are this year's favourites with 10 votes. This might seem a bit puzzling given that their championship performances for the past two years have been identical: indifferent wins over Kerry followed by dissatisfying defeats in the All Ireland semi finals against the eventual winners, Down in 1994 and Dublin last year.

Nonetheless, there is a new confidence about Cork and it principally derives from the emergence of talent from the outstanding 1994 under-21 team and the unwonted seriousness with which they are taking their League campaign for promotion from Division Two.

Last year in Munster Kerry received twice as many votes as Cork to win the province. That position is reversed which seems surprising given the enthusiasm and optimism generated by Paidi o Se's appointment as manager in Kerry.

Although Ulster teams in total don't attract the same level of support as in recent years, Derry are seen as strong contenders, with eight votes for the All Ireland and all but one of the available - Derry's manager Brian Mullins wasn't able to pick his own team - votes in Ulster to regain the provincial title for the first time in three years.

The general perception is that Derry have a good reserve of talent and that the appointment of Mullins will quell the controversies and turbulence that have beset the county in recent times. Unusually, only half the county's votes for the All Ireland come from within Ulster. The province has traditionally been supportive of its own counties but this year goes five four in favour of counties from elsewhere.

Meath are similarly prophets with less honour in their own land. Gathering six votes for the All Ireland, Sean Boylan's team scores only once in Leinster, although four managers (including Dublin's Mickey Whelan who has comparatively little choice in the matter) tip them to succeed Dublin as provincial champions.

Their litany of under age success is becoming a little worn as a portent of senior success but doubts concerning Dublin's ability to motivate themselves after at last achieving an All Ireland and an enduring belief that the team will mature, combine to give Meath one more vote thank they received last year.

Down, champions in 1991 and 94, disappointed their 10 supporters last year by making their exit in mid May and this time around their share has slipped to two - neither of whom went for Down last year. One of them, however, is Donie Shine the Roscommon manager who was one of only two managers to tip Dublin ligible.

Down's prospects largely centre on the capacity of the familiar names to draw one last kick as the county's panel strength is negligible.

The final nomination for the All Ireland is the most surprising. Leitrim's progress under John O'Mahony includes a Connacht title two years ago and a memorable but unavailing All Ireland semi final against Dublin but they would appear to have some ground to cover in respect of national titles. Notwithstanding this modest background they have been tipped by Galway's Bosco McDermott, less influenced by probability than his desire for Connacht sides to achieve, parity of esteem in surveys like this.

In the west, Galway's revival has placed them in pole position with all managers in a position to do so tipping them for the provincial title.