At the start of the week very few would have believed quick ground would be a factor at Punchestown. But to quote a certain football commentator, it is now.
The official forecast is for "good" ground today but serious consideration was being given last night by the course executive to watering. Hardly surprising considering five horses were taken out yesterday because of the change in going, including the high-class pair Native Upmanship and Youlneverwalkalone.
In the circumstances, a proven record on a quick surface looks pretty essential today, and if one is to talk of Punchestown factors then the Nicky Henderson-Mick Fitgerald element comes into play, too.
Happily the pair provide horses in all three of the Grade One races that can be reasonably expected to act on the surface and two of those look set to win.
The first of them is the Arkle winner, Tiutchev, who overcame comparative inexperience at Cheltenham, and the runner-up Cenkos has boosted the form significantly since by winning at Liverpool and running second to Get Real on Tuesday.
"Good" ground in Britain, as it was on the first day of Cheltenham, has a distinctly quicker ring to it than here, so Tiutchev should be okay on the surface; and although Frozen Groom was cruising when falling three out in the Arkle, he faces an uphill task now against the likely favourite in the Swordlestown Cup Novice Chase.
The main danger to Tiutchev should come from his fellow English raider, Samakaan, who should be able to reverse Liverpool form with Jungli on 12lb better terms.
Next up is the Lambourn team's champion stayer Bacchanal in the Ballymore Properties Champion Stayers Hurdle. This one was supposed to be a poor jumper but on fast ground at Cheltenham there was nothing wrong with his jumping as he beat off the Irish banker, Limestone Lad.
A lot of things were against Limestone Lad on that occasion but he is still a class act. Bacchanal can prove there is no fluke about his title, with No Discount nominated as the biggest danger.
Strictly on the Triumph Hurdle form Henderson and Fitzgerald also have the winning of the IAWS Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle with Regal Exit, who finished runner-up to Snow Drop, with General Cloney a neck back in third.
General Cloney is fancied to get the better of things this time, however, as he should have learned a lot from just his second hurdles start and should also be suited by the ground.
But if winning teams are what should be followed then Ted and Ruby Walsh have to be pick in the opening handicap hurdle. Shiny Bay has good ground form and ran a blinder from out of the handicap behind Killultagh Storm at Fairyhouse last week.
Ruby Walsh may also be on the mark courtesy of Willie Mullins' Palette in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase; and Snow Dragon could finally get off the mark over fences.
