GAELIC GAMES: News that DJ Carey had been dropped dominated news of Kilkenny's team selection last night. There had been some whispers of the possibility but it still came as a surprise when the team was released.

There had been no reports of injury to the much decorated hurler and county PRO Ned Buggy couldn't remember Carey being dropped in an intercounty career which is now in its 16th year. His place at full forward goes to Conor Phelan.

The harsh reality of tomorrow's Guinness Leinster hurling final is that bookies' odds are unlikely to change on the basis of Kilkenny's selection at full forward.

Darragh Ryan may have to rethink his mental preparation for an unexpected challenge but in these days of fluid variation on starting line-ups, even the Wexford full back won't be unduly startled.

Tomorrow's Leinster hurling final is overshadowed by Wexford's sensational semi-final victory 13 months ago but not in a way that's particularly encouraging for the unfancied reigning champions.

The more likely impact of last year's championship meeting is that it has been used to rev up a thundering backlash. Already in the lead-up to the semi-final Kilkenny were having it drummed into them that they were facing the very same stage of the championship at which it had all gone wrong in 2004. And poor old Offaly had nothing to do with it.

Imagine the motivation as Wexford sail into view with the provincial title under their belt and a compelling causal link to Kilkenny's ultimate disappointment last season; the failure to win a third successive All-Ireland.

All of this is before a ball is pucked. On the field it's equally hard to make a case. Last year's win was built on a cleverly conceived and well executed game plan. By switching the forwards around and moving the ball quickly, Wexford never gave Kilkenny any time to settle and the favourites were disorientated by the tactics from an early stage.

Nonetheless they had stabilised their challenge led deep into injury-time before Peter Barry's blocked clearance set up that thunderclap from Michael Jacob. In other words despite Wexford's strategy working so well and Kilkenny playing badly enough to warrant five changes the following day, the match was decided by a freak occurrence, albeit a well dispatched one.

There is some concern that Kilkenny's defence is equally vulnerable to such tactics this time. The sight of Offaly's forwards making a match of it in the early stages of the semi-final, before their backs' incontinent leaking of goals broke their colleagues' spirit, was troubling from the favourites' point of view.

There was also the anomaly of a team that wins by 31 points actually committing more fouls (116 per cent of Offaly's total; Wexford conceded 64 per cent of Laois's despite winning by 20 points fewer) than their beleaguered opponents (14-12).

Kilkenny's propensity to give away frees has been a nagging habit that became an issue under the experimental disciplinary rules of the National League. Last year six of Wexford's points were frees; only one of Kilkenny's.

It's hard to see Wexford's basic approach differing from last year, particularly with Nigel Higgins's physical presence now unavailable. Des Mythen is the only change in the their attack and he is an identikit modern Wexford forward: knacky, quick and skilful but far from physically imposing.

The match, however, is likely to swing on what happens at the other end. If Kilkenny put up a big score, their defence isn't going to concede a losing total.

Wexford have height and strength in the backs and aren't going to act as directional signs under pressure. But are they going to fare any better than similar defences in the league, such as Clare's League final?

There is a pattern to Kilkenny-Wexford matches of late: one good display alternating with a less happy one by Wexford. We've seen this all the way from 2001 to '04. It obviously doesn't have to be predictive but it's proof that Kilkenny tighten their focus after any sort of a system shock. And last year's was the worst they have suffered against their neighbours in 20 years.

As the American cousins say, do the math.

WEXFORD: D Fitzhenry; K Rossiter, D Ryan, D O'Connor; M Travers, D Ruth, D Lyng; A Fenlon, R McCarthy; P Carley, E Quigley, D Mythen; M Jacob (capt), M Jordan, R Jacob.

KILKENNY: J McGarry; J Ryall, N Hickey, J Tyrrell; R Mullally, P Barry (capt), JJ Delaney; B Barry, D Lyng; M Comerford, E Larkin, T Walsh; R Power, C Phelan, H Shefflin.

Referee: S Roche (Tipperary).