Could the unthinkable come to pass? Is it possible that Brazil might fail to qualify for next year's World Cup finals in South Korea and Japan, thus losing their proud record of being the only country to qualify for every finals?
In the wake of a 1-1 home draw to Peru in a World Cup qualifier in Sao Paulo last week, the question is no longer merely rhetorical.
With each team having played 12 of their 18 games in CONMEBOL'S marathon round-robin qualifying group, Brazil are currently fourth on 21 points, eight behind leaders Argentina, two behind Paraguay and one behind Ecuador (yes, Ecuador). At first glance, there is no reason for alarm, given that the top four qualify and that the fifth earns a play-off with the winner of the Oceania region.
Yet, some elementary considerations urge at least some concern. For a start, last week's draw came just one month after Brazil had been beaten 1-0 by Ecuador (yes, Ecuador), thus registering their third qualifying loss (0-1 to Paraguay last July and 0-3 to Chile in August were the others).
Also, Brazil's remaining fixture list looks far from easy since it includes three tough away games, against Uruguay in Montevideo, Argentina in Buenos Aires and Bolivia in La Paz (at 11,000 feet above sea level) as well as two difficult home games against Chile and Paraguay. At the moment, Brazil can feel confident only about their final qualifier, at home to Venezuela, a team they thrashed 6-0 last October.
The national team's difficulties come in an already troubled season, marked by two ongoing Congressional hearings, investigating corruption and alleged mismanagement in Brazilian football. The phenomenon of declining attendances at league games, partly prompted by a fixture chaos that can see leading clubs play four games a week, has also spread to the national side.
In the mid-1990s, the average attendance for a Brazil home international was 73,000, yet figures for the last two years record just over 30,000 a game. Inevitably, in such a context, there are those who wish to drastically reform Brazilian soccer, starting with the national team. For example, former star Socrates last weekend argued that the time had come for the national coach to be chosen by the Brazilian people.
"Brazilians identify with football and the coach of the national team gets more noticed than the President of the Republic . . . For this reason, he should be elected by the people. It would be a choice to mobilise the country," said Socrates.
In the meantime, though, pressure is inevitably mounting on coach Emerson Leao, the man who took over from Wanderly Luxemburgo last September.
Stung by criticism of his "foreign legion" of European-based players after last month's 1-0 defeat by Ecuador in Quito, Leao opted for an unfamiliar looking formation against Peru last week, featuring nine home-based players. Rivaldo, Roberto Carlos, Cafu, Leonardo, Elber, Assuncao, Jardel, Roque Junior were omitted from the team which saw five players make their debuts.
Furthermore, leading the Brazilian attack was 35-year-old veteran Romario, scorer of the side's 66th-minute opening goal. Not surprisingly, given the makeshift line-up, Brazil failed to impress. Speaking after a game which ended with Brazil battling hard not to concede a late Peruvian winner, coach Leao told reporters: "A draw at home, under any circumstances, is a dreadful result. We're not in decline, it's just that at the moment, we're not doing well".
He had better be right.
pagnew@aconet.it
