Australia losing to Ireland was predictable

... due to age-profiles and the weather

. . . due to age-profiles and the weather. The key now is for Ireland to use the victory as a stepping stone, writes MATT WILLIAMS

IT NEVER ceases to amaze me how the emotion in Irish sport can go from the basement to the penthouse in the course of few days. Can I ask the collective rugby nation to take a deep breath and for God’s sake calm down while we consider the facts.

Immediately after Ireland left a soaked Taranaki Stadium following the USA game the Irish “chicken littles” were saying the World Cup sky was falling in. Again. No bonus point against a brave USA. Wrong conclusion.

A week later after an excellent victory against a weakened Australia, who do not know how to play wet-weather rugby, it is being hailed as the greatest victory in Irish rugby history. Wrong again.

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Ireland have won a very important pool match and have won an opportunity to capitalise on an important pool win. However that is exactly what it is – a very good pool win. If Ireland win a quarter-final the team can look back at the historic nature of the victory. If the team aspires to drop out at the quarter-final time, then a pool win is the best it can do. If it aspires to win the World Cup then it is simply a good step along the path.

Let me be blunt. Against the USA the poor weather stopped Ireland playing to their potential. I applaud the Irish team for scoring three very well constructed tries. I thought it was a competent performance without being excellent. The fourth try was there to take but Ireland tried to play dry-weather rugby on a sodden pitch. This brought the USA team into the game. Ireland lacked the ruthlessness to kick to the corners and maul the last try. The USA only scored a try because Ireland ran a dry-weather move on a wet day and the USA intercepted. Sound familiar? Here is a hint. Tommy Bowe against Australia! Australia playing dry-weather rugby on a wet day. Dumb.

The emotional response from the “chicken littles” was all about the scoreboard. It is not always just about the scoreboard, especially in a tournament. It is about the process the team undertook to get the scores. The Irish process was good.

I told anyone who would listen that Ireland had a great opportunity against a very young inexperienced Australian side. The Australians had two rather large holes in their armoury that were not discussed at length. This is the Australian drought generation. As hard as it is for Irish people to grasp it did not rain in eastern Australia for a decade.

This was the time of this team’s youth. They, and all other Australians of this age, have no concept of wet-weather tactics. We saw Quade Cooper play ridiculous wet-weather rugby in throwing the pass that Bowe intercepted. Australia played like they were in Brisbane on a dry balmy April day.

Problem was it was September in Auckland and they don’t have droughts in New Zealand.

Secondly this Australian team, as the Garda would say, “has form”. A terrible loss to Samoa in June, two adequate wins over the ’Boks, one against a third XV in Sydney and a brilliant win against the rested Boks’ first match back. They were then smashed by New Zealand at – you guessed it – Eden Park. Then a super win in Brisbane against New Zealand.

What does this form show? The classic profile of a young team. Inconsistency. I am a fan of this Australian side. I love watching them play. They are free spirits. At World Cup 2015 I will have my money on them. Rugby World Cup tournaments are won by old experienced teams. Australian in 1991 and 1999 were old. England in 2003 were old. South Africa in 1995 and 2007 were old. Kids do not win World Cups. This Australian side are the youngest team at the World Cup. Their loss to Ireland was predictable.

Conversely Ireland are the second oldest team at this World Cup. That is a major plus.

So let’s analyse.

It was wet weather that stopped Australia playing their natural game.

Ireland employed brilliant tactics. The choke tackles, a brilliant scrum, sensational discipline and energy across the field.

Ireland were brave running the ball from a five-metre scrum because the Australian wingers were back waiting for the kick. Wonderful, and all of it against a highly-talented team. It was the best win Ireland have ever had in RWC history. That is a fact. It was a pool game. Inconveniently that is also a fact.

It was not, however, Ireland’s greatest ever win. Remember Jackie Kyle’s 1947 Grand Slam win? There were crunch games there. Ciarán Fitzgerald’s 1979 two-match series win in Australia when the Wallabies were Bledisloe Cup holders? The 2009 Grand Slam win against Wales?

Let’s all take a deep breath.

The processes the Irish team displayed in defeating both the USA and Australia should be applauded and we should all give praise to both the players and management for two professional performances. The team will take great energy and confidence from the last two weeks and the opportunities for success in the play-off stages are huge. But it is just that – an opportunity.

As the old American blues songs say, “I started with nothing and I still have plenty of it left.” Until we convert the opportunity the Australian win has provided into a semi-final place, it remains that it is a great win, but not our best.

A defeat at the quarter-final stage will suggest that the performance last week was a one-off. That is not acceptable to this Irish team. I have every confidence they will win the quarter-final. So let’s all keep our toes on Irish soil for a few more days.

This is a tournament. There are five games to go. Let’s play the next five games before we judge the greatness of the victory.