Inglis Drever looks the only potential banker but even he is less than a sure thing. It promises to be a wide-open week in the Cotswolds
LIKE ALMOST everyone else going to Cheltenham, I regard the festival as a Mecca. For me it's the greatest place on earth. I know other festivals have raised their game in terms of funding, and Punchestown is an Irish example, but it is like the situation in golf: while the Irish Open is the Irish Open, the British Open is simply the Open.
It can also be the cruellest place on earth, though. There's so much anticipation and so many hopes, but not everyone can get a perfect result. People can be devastated by Cheltenham. Then there are the accidents. The best horses run there and usually the best horses also try the hardest. When it goes wrong, you find out how cruel it can be.
Those of us fortunate enough to have been successful at Cheltenham will, however, always feel a special tingle for the place. When Kicking King won the Gold Cup three years ago it was the most fantastic thing for me. Professionally, it was the ultimate and it meant so much on a personal level too. I felt justified being a Taaffe.
Cheltenham has been part of my family's life for such a long time. The first time I was ever at the place was when I was 19 and had my first ride there as an amateur. Clonthurtin was placed in the four-mile National Hunt Chase. I was never taken there as a kid because it was too big an occasion. Everyone would have been way too busy, it wasn't really a place for children, and Daddy was a professional rider after all.
The Gold Cup means so much to me. Daddy won it four times as a jockey, including the three on Arkle. Then he did it again as a trainer in 1974 when Captain Christy won. I remember watching it at home on TV. I was just 11. All those memories came flooding back when Kicking King won 31 years later. It was the most brilliant day - and one we had been hoping up to Wednesday to repeat.
I'd hoped Kicking King would put in one of those "catching pigeons" pieces of work but the fact is the pigeons won. He didn't work badly, but not nearly good enough to take us to Cheltenham. After two years spent trying to get him back to the festival, it was one of those character-building moments, but then this is a character-building game.
Three years ago he wasn't running a month before the race and then he came back and won it. We also got a Punchestown Gold Cup and a King George out of him before his leg went. The main thing is he's physically okay and we'll wait for him to start sparkling again.
At his best, I've no doubt that Kicking King would have been right there with both Kauto Star and Denman. Now I can watch the race dispassionately and enjoy a clash everyone is looking forward to.
The hype in the build-up has been unreal. For me Kauto Star is the one to beat, especially after having a much easier campaign than last year. And yet I feel people have been carried away a little. Go through his form with a fine-tooth comb and you see he's beating Exotic Dancer a lot. Exotic Dancer is good but it is still a fact he started out as a progressive handicapper.
I'd still prefer Kauto to Denman, though. It was a fine performance by Denman the last day but he had no great opposition. On paper, the form of his Hennessy win hasn't worked out either. He's a big, old-fashioned chaser but whether he has the class to win a Gold Cup, I don't know.
My festival hope will be Finger Onthe Pulse, who will run in the Jewson on the Thursday. He has been trained for this meeting and should love the course and distance. Two miles and five furlongs around Cheltenham is the same as three miles at Leopardstown. He should get his ground and I think his handicap is fair. I quite fancy him.
Numerically, there will be a lot of horses travelling from Ireland but I don't see any actual bankers this year. In fact the only potential banker of the meeting looks like being Inglis Drever and there's a doubt about him too with the problems Howard Johnson has had. Overall, it looks a very open Cheltenham and the betting reflects that.
Sizing Europe looks the obvious horse for the Champion Hurdle. He has won around Cheltenham, even though it was only a handicap, and he showed the benefit of that in the AIG. His jumping isn't a worry and if he can beat Hardy Eustace and Al Eile like that around Leopardstown, then the track next week should be right up his alley. Sublimity would be an obvious threat if able to put in a similar performance to last year but I would like to have seen more of him this season.
Muirhead is a damn good horse and I see Noel Meade has described him as being quite delicate, which means he might be suited by not having had a run since December. It's also encouraging that Noel's horses are right back to form. He should have a decent chance in the Supreme Novice but both Rippling Ring and Deep Purple will be hard to beat.
I'm not as sure about Forpadydeplasterer in the Ballymore. He was very good at Leopardstown but he does hang a bit and there's always a reason for that. Some little thing must be annoying him and that's not something you like to see before a big race.
The novice chases look wide open as well but I would quietly fancy Clopf to go well in the Arkle. He was very unfortunate at Navan, where he didn't deserve to fall at the last. He actually jumped it too well. I'd be surprised if it affects his confidence and it was good to see Maralan come out and boost the form. He must have a good chance but at the same time he faces a big task in trying to beat Noland. When you look back to his Supreme win in 2006 and see how Sublimity and Straw Bear were behind him, you have to wake up to that.
I was very impressed by Zaarito at Naas when he won by eight lengths. He will run a very big race in the Champion Bumper. But overall,from a betting point of view, it looks an each-way festival.
In an interview with Brian O'Connor.
Tom Taaffe will provide a daily column throughout the festival.