Negotiations are expected to begin in the coming days between political groups and factions to determine the exact balance of power in the next European Parliament, following elections at the weekend that saw a shift to the right.
The previous governing majority of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and centrist group Renew is to remain intact, with a margin of about 40 votes to spare. Results from 26 EU countries show the three centre groupings won about 400 of the available 720 seats in the next European Parliament.
As the last votes are being counted, the various political groups are expected to try to recruit new MEPs and parties who are unaligned, or could be convinced to jump ship, to boost their seat numbers. The EPP is expected to begin talks with S&D and Renew in the coming days, aimed at continuing its previous governing partnership.
Renew is to discuss the future of VVD within the group, following a backlash to its decision to enter coalition in the Netherlands with Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party. The decision by the Dutch centrist party to enter the coalition led to harsh criticism and claims that it had enabled the far right, creating strife within the Renew group during the European campaign.
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There had been speculation the EU grouping might move to expel VVD, which won four seats in the elections at the weekend. During the campaign senior Renew politicians said they would settle the matter after the election. Overall, the group lost a fifth of its MEPs, in part due to a heavy defeat in France, where the far-right National Rally (RN) took twice as many seats as French president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition.
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Valerie Hayer, a French MEP and Macron ally who was one of Renew’s lead candidates in the campaign, said the group would continue to fight against the far right, despite suffering heavy losses in the elections. Speaking in Brussels on Monday, Ms Hayer said a decision would be made on VVD’s membership of Renew in the next few weeks.
There has been speculation that the fractured groups on the extreme right of the parliament may seek to reorganise, or unite, to try to form a more cohesive opposition force. The hard right and far right made significant gains in the elections and are expected to become a louder voice in opposition. The ballot marked the election of about 160 MEPs who belong to right-wing nationalist, populist, ultra-conservative, and far-right parties.
In the last weeks of the elections, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would be open to working with Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia), which won 24 seats to become the largest party in Italy. At present, Ms Meloni’s party is one of the main players in the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which won 73 seats.
Ms Le Pen’s expanded National Rally party is the main force in the far-right Identity and Democracy group, which won 58 seats. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban’s right-wing Fidesz party, which is unaligned, may seek to join forces with allies on the right.
All the political groups are due to meet towards the second half of the month to settle who sits where, as well as divide up commitments and promises for roles on committees in the next parliament.
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