Midlands-North-West: Battle for final seat could end with a small party making a breakthrough

Midlands-North-West (MWN) spans 15 counties in three provinces. There are 27 candidates on the slate – 10 more than in 2019. The counting of votes in MWN has been laboriously slow in the past; with so many names on the ballot paper, counting this time around could take a week.

This has been a happy hunting ground for Fine Gael which had two MEPs elected in 2019 with Maria Walsh and Mairéad McGuinness. The latter romped home with 22.6 per cent of the poll, or 134,630 votes.

In contrast to Fine Gael’s fortunes, this has been a fallow hunting ground for Fianna Fáil. It is now a full decade since the party had its last MEP here.

It was the sole constituency where Sinn Féin retained a seat. That was attributable to Matt Carthy’s personal standing.

European election results: All Irish MEPs elected as final four seats decided in Midlands-North-West

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European Election: Midlands-North-West results

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European Election: Ireland South results

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Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan consolidated his hold on his seat in 2019, despite dropping votes, continuing a tradition of the constituency producing at least one Independent MEP.

The addition of Laois and Offaly since the last elections in 2019 give the ‘Midlands’ part of the constituency real meaning. Most significantly, it has gone from a four-seater to a five-seater.

The early consensus among observers, buttressed by The Irish Times opinion poll, was that each of the three bigger parties would return one MEP each, and that Flanagan has a nailed-on seat.

A battle looms for the final seat with as many as five candidates in contention.

Fianna Fáil needs to regain a seat, especially given that there is an extra seat. Has its decision to run three candidates backfired a little? There has been some unsavoury infighting, with Niall Blaney complaining he is not getting a fair crack of the whip. Lisa Chambers and Barry Cowen seem to be campaigning as independent candidates and differ on key issues. Cowen is the front-runner but Chambers may give him a run for his money.

Fine Gael have gone the tried and trusted route of choosing a celebrity candidate. Retired jockey Nina Carbery is a household name but she seems to be carefully chaperoned and her complete absence from debates has been noted by rivals and the public. Maria Walsh, herself a celebrity candidate as a former Rose of Tralee winner, is not to be underestimated. Getting two candidates over the line seems like a tall order for Fine Gael, however.

Neither of the two Sinn Féin candidates has a high profile in the constituency. Chris MacManus is a substitute, stepping in for Matt Carthy after he became a TD in 2020, and Michelle Gildernew, while well known in the North, would not be recognisable south of the Border. The campaign has traded on the party’s brand.

The big issues in this constituency are transport, climate change, housing, the cost-of-living and migration and the problem of Mica defective blocks in people’s homes, particularly in Donegal.

Of the other candidates, Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has a profile that is well ahead of his party. He was closely identified with the No campaign in the family referendum and that will give him traction with more conservative voters in the mainly rural constituency.

His big rival will be Ciarán Mullooly, the former RTÉ reporter, standing for Independent Ireland, who has a high profile and similar stances to Tóibín. Parties of the left have struggled here even though the Social Democrats have a strong performer in Rory Hearne.

The star turns in 2019 were Peter Casey and Saoirse McHugh (then Green, now independent). Some of Casey’s policy suggestions are bizarre: a three-state solution for Israel and Palestine, reinstatement of border checks, a €40,000 fixed salary for farmers. It is also hard to see McHugh emulating her 2019 performance.

Candidates and prediction

Prediction: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Ind (Flanagan) & final seat: Tóibín (Aontu)/Mullooly (Independent Ireland)

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