Public concern about immigration, often focused on the provision of accommodation for asylum seekers, has become a central issue in Irish politics and will play a significant part in the election campaigns now under way.
Politicians who are knocking on doors canvassing for the local and European elections report that the issue is coming up regularly. Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll data shows that for a growing number of voters, immigration matters at the ballot box.
Participants in the poll were asked: “In an election do you think you would be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate that voiced concerns about immigration or would it make no difference to how you would vote?” The same question was also asked in the last poll in February.
Since then, the numbers of those who say that they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate have increased sharply – up from 30 per cent of all voters in February to 38 per cent in today’s poll. That is almost four in 10 voters who say they would look favourably on candidates who express concerns about immigration. It isn’t too difficult to figure out what effect this will have on the behaviour of candidates. In truth, most of them have figured it out already.
We should acknowledge that almost as many (36 per cent) say it would make no difference, while 18 per cent say it would them less likely to vote for a candidate if they raised concerns about immigration. The issue, it seems, matters both ways. Like it or not, immigration and asylum policy is in the mix now when voters come to make up their minds.
There is a marked difference on the issue between the voters of different parties. Those most likely to vote for a candidate who expresses concerns on immigration are supporters of Sinn Féin and Independents. Younger voters, urban voters and voters who are the least well off are those who are most responsive to candidates who raise concerns about immigration.
Like it or not, there is an unmistakable toughening of the public mood. Just 15 per cent say they want to see a more open policy toward asylum seekers, while 63 per cent – an increase of four points since February – want to see a more closed policy. Again, it is Sinn Féin supporters who show the toughest line – 70 per cent of them want to see a more closed policy.
There is strong support for the Government to do more to manage immigration and to deport asylum seekers whose applications have failed. Almost four in five voters (79 per cent) say the Government should do more to manage the issue and 73 per cent say it should do more to deport failed applicants. Support for more deportations is again strongest among Sinn Féin supporters.
It is important to point out that, on balance, most voters regard immigration in general – of which, of course, the arrival of those seeking asylum is only a small part, albeit a very visible one – as a positive thing for the country. Almost half of voters – 46 per cent – say so; 38 per cent say on balance it has been a negative thing (11 per cent say it has made no difference). But the “net positive” number – ie, the gap between those who say it’s positive and those who say it is negative – is shrinking. It was 13 points in February; it is eight today.
It is important too to point out that immigration is not the only issue of concern for voters. Repeated surveys show that housing is the number one concern for voters; the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A monthly Snapshot survey shows that while immigration shot to the top of the things voters were noticing about the Government earlier this year, housing usually takes the top spot. But immigration is new as an issue that influences peoples’ votes, very visible on the streets of Dublin (and therefore in media coverage) and politically divisive.
All parties are scrambling to deal with it. The tumbling poll numbers reported in the Irish Times yesterday suggest that Sinn Féin has been the least successful. In recent weeks, Taoiseach Simon Harris’s efforts have been noticed by voters, and his party has benefited. It seems reasonable to expect that this direction of policy will continue. And that the immigration issue will not go away.
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