OPINION:South Africa is in a period of transition to rule by Jacob Zuma - a man who arouses devotion and loathing in equal measure, writes DEREK McDOWELL
THE AFRICAN National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party, will nominate its deputy leader Kgalema Motlanthe as its candidate to act as president of the republic until the scheduled general election takes place next year.
Given that the ANC has an overwhelming majority in parliament, Motlanthe is certain to be elected when it meets in Cape Town.
The ANC was not in a position to nominate its leader, Jacob Zuma, as Zuma is not an MP but Motlanthe comes from the same party faction as Zuma and will rule, presumably, in close concert with the leader. The ANC is virtually certain to win the general election next April and Zuma will then assume the role of state president.
For many South Africans this scenario is a dream come true. For others it is more akin to a nightmare.
Zuma is hugely popular with poor South Africans, many of whom have failed to benefit from the economic policies pursued under Mbeki. Zuma is a populist, willing and able to bring thousands of people on to the streets in support of him, as was demonstrated recently when huge crowds thronged the streets of Pietermaritzburg during the latest hearing in his long battle with the state prosecutors, who are looking to have him charged with corruption.
Zuma is a Zulu, unlike other ANC leaders such as Mandela and Mbeki - both of whom are Xhosa. Consequently, he commands a huge level of support in the key province of KwaZulu Natal.
But many other South Africans dislike Zuma with a passion. They resent his populist tendencies and supporters, who include the Trade Union Congress, the Communist Party and the ANC Youth League, whose leader Julius Malema recently declared that he would "kill for Zuma". They disapprove of the fact that the ANC leader observes traditional values - he has several "traditional" wives. They think he is sexist and believe him to be corrupt.
Zuma and Motlanthe face the twin tasks of meeting the expectations of their supporters and allaying the fears of their detractors. This will not be easy and may well be impossible.
From a fiscal perspective South Africa is doing rather well. The economy has been growing at 5 per cent per annum for a number of years now and there is a budget surplus. The national debt is just over 30 per cent - low by international standards; taxes are relatively low.
On the face of it, there is a respectable case to be made for more social spending aimed at reducing poverty and inequality. Yet Zuma has been slow to make that case, at least in public. On the contrary, all of his efforts seem to be aimed at reassuring business, the markets and the international community that nothing will change.
Shortly after he became leader he visited Europe to reassure foreign leaders that it would be "business as usual" when he took over as president. By all accounts he went down a treat at the World Economic Forum in Davos. In recent days it is said that he has gone to great pains to ensure that finance minister, Trevor Manuel, author of the current economic policies, stays in his job.
It could be that the ANC leader intends to talk the language of business while pursuing more populist policies on the ground. He wouldn't be the first left-wing politician to do so. But, on balance, it seems more likely that he and Motlanthe are committed to pursuing the economic policies of the Mbeki administration.
If so, it will be interesting to see how he manages to square this with the expectations and demands of his more radical supporters.
There have been significant differences of emphasis between Mbeki and Zuma on other issues. The ANC leader has been much more critical of Robert Mugabe than Mbeki ever was. He has also been more willing to acknowledge the serious problems which afflict South Africa - crime and HIV/Aids to name but two. However, despite the differences in rhetoric it is difficult to glean any significant policy differences.
The first task which Motlanthe and Zuma will have is to steady the nerves of those many South Africans who have been unnerved by the events which culminated in the forced resignation of Mbeki.
At a press conference yesterday in Johannesburg the ANC leader repeatedly stressed that the decision to remove Mbeki was painful. He paid tribute to Mbeki and emphasised the importance of continuity. He acknowledged that the resignation of the president had unsettled many ordinary South Africans.
The resignation has also upset many in the ANC. The party has been deeply divided by the events of recent months. So much so that some have speculated about the possibility of a split. In the immediate term this seems highly unlikely.
In time it may well come to pass, but in the meantime there is a lot of reassuring to be done.
• Derek McDowell is former Labour Party TD for Dublin North Central and spent a year recently living in South Africa.