Zimbabwe will never be the same again after the parliamentary elections which have given the Movement for Democratic Change such remarkable support. Had it not been for sustained violence, terror and intimidation against its supporters by the ruling Zanu-PF party of President Robert Mugabe the opposition movement might well have won the elections outright. The very future of Zimbabwe as a democratic state will now depend on how the president and his regime react to the new political balance of forces, in which they will have to negotiate political priorities and change with a strong opposition, rather than railroad policies through a compliant parliament, as they have been all too accustomed to doing in recent years.
Despite these grave shortcomings it looks as if the election results will be accepted by the opposition and neighbouring states as a rough approximation of real popular preferences. Election observers, notably from the European Union, were very critical of the campaign but stopped short of saying the election is illegitimate. Mr Morgan Tvsangirai, the MDC leader, dismissed suggestions that he would accept a coalition government - or a nominated position in parliament having failed to be elected to it - and stressed that he looks forward to standing against Mr Mugabe in presidential elections in two years time. He welcomed the achievement of sufficient seats to deprive Mr Mugabe of the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution. He said the primary task facing all politicians is to restore confidence in the country's future, which would only be guaranteed by Mr Mugabe's departure from office.
It is difficult to disagree with Mr Tvsangirai's assessment. His movement has had an extraordinary success in building itself up from scratch over the last nine months, drawing together trade unionists, churches, human rights groups and a number of prominent members of the white community. Their programme calls for radical measures to deal with soaring inflation, interest rates and unemployment, attacks corruption and demands immediate withdrawal of Zimbabwean troops from the civil war in the Congo.
They have swept most of the urban constituencies, leaving Mr Mugabe's support concentrated in rural areas. Their task now will be to consolidate this support and try to transform it into a real constraint on Mr Mugabe's authoritarian government. His statement last night - that the results "do bind us all, losers and winners alike" - is a hopeful sign that he is ready to accept these new political realities.
Those surrounding him will, however, not easily relinquish their hold on power, from which they have grown rich, privileged, corrupt and increasingly arbitrary. The display of terror tactics by veterans of the independence war against rural critics of the government is a chilling reminder of what could be in store for the country if the political temperature does not cool down in coming months. Mr Mugabe comes out of this election severely shaken; he must now contemplate a further loss of authority and prestige as he is forced to negotiate with a buoyant opposition. This election was a huge step in the direction of democratic change in Zimbabwe but is unfortunately not a guarantee that it can succeed.