Zimbabwe deal is cause for cautious optimism

The powersharing deal is a very good thing, but what happens next is what really matters, writes Bryan Mukandi

The powersharing deal is a very good thing, but what happens next is what really matters, writes Bryan Mukandi

IT IS difficult to know what to make of the agreement between Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe and the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. The deal that the two men have struck is very far from being perfect, but who knows? It may help restore sanity to Zimbabwe's social, economic and political scene.

I had an animated "discussion" not too long ago with a friend (let's call her Nancy) who happens to work in the development sector here in Ireland.

She was unhappy about the fact that most Angolans she had come across while in that country on a work assignment were going to vote for the ruling party out of fear.

READ MORE

Having recently welcomed the end of civil war, most Angolans were understandably fearful of rocking the boat and the consensus was that the best way to maintain peace would be to vote for president José Eduardo dos Santos' MPLA.

There were even rumours that, were the opposition to win, civil war would resume. In the end, MPLA won over 80 per cent of the vote.

Nancy was frustrated by the fact that many, maybe even most Angolans were unable really to exercise their democratic right to vote freely - they were still bound by their violent past.

I like to think of myself as a realist, and realistically speaking, Angola has made incredible progress. That progress is only a start, but an imperfect peace, even when there are formidable challenges ahead, is better than unrest in my opinion.

So while I appreciated Nancy's concerns, I felt she was choosing to see the glass as being half empty when in fact it was, in my opinion, remarkable that there was anything in the glass at all.

It is nothing short of a miracle that Mugabe and Tsvangirai are going to form a government together. This may be the first time in post-colonial Zimbabwe's history that the country will not be squarely in one man's hands.

It is a milestone in the country's political development. Even more important is the hope of an end to politically motivated violence.

Zimbabweans, for the most part, are a peace-loving people. There is now the possibility that the madness of the last decade will come to an end.

Best of all, for the first time in maybe 10 years, the government can direct most of its attention to running and developing the country as opposed to the politics of staying in power at all costs. Zimbabwe is no Angola and has not had to endure the agony of full-blown civil war, but it hasn't been a country at peace either. What having a shot at peace means; the fact that stability and normality are within reach: these things evoke emotions in some of us which are very difficult to encapsulate with words.

And yet, there will be little rejoicing in the coming days. I suspect that there will instead be quite a bit of apprehension and frustration. The frustration is easy to understand. There will be those who have worked very hard to crush the opposition. They will have to sit down and work with their enemies. Not only that, they will probably be looking over their shoulders for some time to come because justice has a way of catching up with wrongdoers, even in places like Zimbabwe.

Members of the opposition party may also be very frustrated. All of them have buried friends or relatives killed by thugs acting on the orders of their new partners in government. Morgan Tsvangirai himself will have to work very closely with people who had his skull fractured and had him tried for treason, a crime which carries the death penalty in that jurisdiction. There will not be much laughter in cabinet once the cameras are turned off.

The same thing will be played out on the streets, in small towns, big cities and the countryside. People are going to have to come to terms with the fact that there was no great overhaul. It was not possible in the end to get rid of a system that was seen by the vast majority as the problem.

Instead, there is going to have to be a superimposing of systems. So, while there will probably be a lot of relief, there will also be some anger. It is a classic case of putting new wine in old wineskins.

As for apprehension, anyone who has a vested interest in Zimbabwe will be holding their breath for while. This agreement is potentially a very good thing, but it is what happens in the months to come that really matters. No one really knows if a "Kenya solution" works in the long term. This could be an important step in Zimbabwe's political maturation, or a temporary distraction. And having watched the country come undone over such a long period of time, it is hard to see things turning around just like that.

But such is the nature of progress and change. Childbirth is a very messy, slow, painful process. We like to sanitise it in our public discourse and in the media, but it is what it is. Maybe that is the nature of all real progress. As slow, painful, frustrating and messy the process of Zimbabwe's democratisation has been, it is important to note that at no other time has the country been as free as it is

today.

That freedom is not nearly complete and there is still much to do. It has come at the expense of the country's productive sector, many innocent lives, and wasted opportunity. But there has been progress. The idea that one man, or one party, has a God given right to dictate to the rest has died.

In spite of all the uncertainties, in spite of the very real chance that the government of national unity will unravel or that Morgan Tsvangirai will prove to be as big a disappointment as some of those who have gone before him, I am cautiously hopeful.