After almost a week of electioneering, the alternative government parties have failed to wrest a decisive advantage from their opponents. But Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats have retained a core support lead of nine points over the combined strength of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left. And the opposition parties must still be considered as favourites to form the next government.
In stark contrast to this poll message, however, a section of the electorate has swung back in support of the rainbow government option and has narrowed the gap between the two coalition arrangements from 12 to 6 points. At the same time, the satisfaction rating for the present Government has climbed to its highest ever point, with a support level of 54 per cent.
What has happened, in effect, is that public preference on government formation, and opinion on government performance, has returned to where it was last March, in advance of the public hearings by the Dunnes payments tribunal at Dublin Castle which damaged the rainbow coalition. But, within that framework, Fine Gael has failed to recover the 4 points it lost in public support; Fianna Fail has remained static; the Labour Party and the Progressive Democrats have drifted off a point and there has been a surge of four points to Independent candidates.
It is clear from these findings that the "undecided" vote, on which the outcome of the election will hinge, has not been swayed to any significant degree by the competing tax packages of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which were published before sampling for the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll was conducted.
But support levels for other parties were influenced. The Labour Party will be disappointed by its two point drop in support since May 5th and this has been compounded by a fall of two points in Mr Dick Spring's personal popularity rating. The Progressive Democrats have also dropped a point but other parties remain unchanged. With Fianna Fail's support holding firm - against the traditional trend at election time - Mr Bertie Ahern will be reassured. And he can take some comfort from the one point increase in his personal satisfaction rating to 60 per cent.
Since the poll was conducted, the Labour Party and Democratic Left have unveiled their manifestos - the Progressive Democrats will do so today - but it is unlikely that the release of these documents will significantly alter the picture. The size of the "undecided" vote was measured at 16 per cent, which is considerably higher than might be expected at this stage in a general election campaign.
As the campaign continues, however, and the various taxation, economic and social issues are fought over by the parties and assessed in detail by commentators, public opinion will begin to harden and the "undecided" vote will contract. Only at that stage will it become possible to say with any certainty how this election campaign is likely to end. In the meantime, the inconclusive nature of this opinion poll will exert enormous pressure on the major political parties to depart from their carefully choreographed campaign plans and to take the war to their opponents through outspoken assaults on their credibility and their policies.
With a little more than two weeks to go to polling day, the electorate is still somewhat detached from the campaign and is weighing up the options. But when the shift in public opinion comes, no matter what contentious issue precipitates it, the result is likely to be decisive.