ANALYSIS:When Brian Cowen arrives in China this evening, Asian countries will be interested in how we are coping with recession, writes Deaglán de Bréadún
SHANGHAI WILL have to wait for another occasion. In light of the turbulent political circumstances at home in Ireland, Brian Cowen postponed his departure on a trade mission to China until this evening, which means he will be travelling directly to Beijing instead of making a two-day stopover in the second city of the People's Republic.
Minister for Education and Science Batt O'Keeffe is deputising for the Taoiseach until his arrival. Even when he gets to Beijing, Cowen will clearly be keeping in touch with events back home, which could mean a lot of late-night or early-morning calls, given that Beijing time is seven hours ahead of Ireland.
Even backbench rebels could not cause the entire trip to be cancelled: China is too important for that. Naturally, trade and investment are high on Cowen's list of priorities, but there is also an element of international high politics as he will be devoting two full days to a summit of Asian and European leaders in the Chinese capital.
His first major engagement in Beijing is an address to a business breakfast of some 500 Irish expatriates and interested Chinese entrepreneurs on Thursday morning. The last time the Taoiseach addressed such an event was at the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in July.
The storm clouds were already gathering at that stage and Cowen acknowledged we were living in "challenging times".
While he will inevitably promote the benefits of closer trade, investment and educational links, his listeners in the Jade ballroom of the Kempinski Hotel will be anxious to hear about the Government's swift and, at the time, unique response to the banking crisis at the beginning of the month, as well as the sweeping economic measures announced by his Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan in the Dáil last week.
Many other small countries in Asia and Europe looked to Ireland as a role model in the Celtic Tiger years and they will now be eager to know how, as one of the world's most globalised economies, we are coping with the sudden and dramatic reversal in the international economy.
At a time when Beijing will be thronged with European and Asian leaders, Government sources are proud of pulling off something of a coup in securing a meeting with Chinese premier Wen Jiabao which will take place at the Great Hall of the People, on the western edge of Tiananmen Square.
The 1989 Tiananmen massacre still lives in international memory and remains a point of tension between China and the rest of the world. The Government claims to raise human rights issues with Beijing and its representatives "at every opportunity".
A press conference was held in Dublin yesterday morning to highlight the arrest, at Zheng Zhou city in Henan province, of Aiqin Wang, an adherent of the Falun Gong movement and mother of UCC student Tang Liang.
A former minister for finance told me recently that he would have tackled the current crisis by approaching the Chinese for a substantial loan at a minimal rate of interest. There are no indications that the Taoiseach will try this, but he is bound to be keenly interested in Beijing's perspective on the international economic situation.
Friday and Saturday will be entirely devoted to a summit of the Asia-Europe meeting which is an inter-regional forum for Asian and EU leaders as well as the European Commission. The summit theme will be Action and Vision: Towards a Win-Win Solution, and - reportedly after some initial reluctance - the hosts have agreed to put the world financial crisis on the agenda.
Ireland was to the fore in promoting United Nations recognition of the People's Republic of China instead of the Taiwan administration. For that reason as well as others, Brian Cowen can be sure of a warmer welcome in Beijing when he finally arrives this week than he would be likely to receive from the Opposition benches in Leinster House - or even some of his own backbenchers.
• Deaglán de Bréadún is Irish Timespolitical correspondent. He is travelling with the Irish trade party in China.