The Provisional IRA continues to recruit, train, gather intelligence and engage in "punishment" attacks and major organised crime, according to the fifth report of the International Monitoring Commission set up by the British and Irish governments.
This authoritative assessment is a sharp reminder of the central question facing that organisation and its political wing, Sinn Féin - whether, in the words of the report, they are "now ready to ensure that PIRA ends all forms of illegal activity and to engage wholeheartedly in democratic politics and policing?"
The Northern Ireland peace process is at a complete standstill until this question is resolved clearly to the satisfaction of all parties. Once that happens there is good reason to hope political progress can be made towards restoring devolved rule and power-sharing.
The IMC report underlines that if the IRA does respond positively to Mr Gerry Adams's call on it to fully embrace peace and democracy then "he will have demonstrated leadership of a high order". According to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, the IRA is conducting a national debate on it. As he says, "the outcome must be clear and decisive end to paramilitarism and criminality, and the completion of decommissioning."
A decision is expected over the summer, perhaps in the next month. If positive, it would have to be followed by a verifiable winding up or disbandment of the IRA. That would clear the way for negotiations on a complete implementation of the Belfast Agreement to resume in the autumn.
The Government is fully committed to this path and anxious to pursue it. The same applies to the British government. Mr Tony Blair gives restoration of the agreement a high priority before he stands aside as party leader and prime minister during this parliamentary term - and it was evident in the House of Commons yesterday that there is increasing pressure on him to go. All concerned should recognise the opportunity arising from this timetable if they are serious about making political progress.
Both governments are convinced that once the IRA goes out of business the Democratic Unionist Party could be convinced to resume negotiations on restoring power-sharing and devolved government - notwithstanding their calls for a completely new agreement and assertions that the Northern Ireland election results gave unionists a mandate for continued direct rule.
The DUP supports devolution. Its ministers showed their talent for using it during the previous executive. Its representatives are becoming more used to the responsibilities of leadership now that they have consolidated their victory over the UUP. They are more aware now of the potential benefits the exercise of power would have for their supporters. The party would come under major - and justifiable - pressure to respond constructively in such propitious circumstances.